2010 Finals Preview
Thursday, June 3, 2010Posted by Jeremy Conlin
Here we go again … again.
Lakers vs. Celtics. I mean, yawn, right?
Once again, we’re jumping into Doc Brown’s DeLorean and headed back to the 1980s. I considered going to a salon and getting the Jack Sikma Blondafroperm, but because I work in a service industry, I thought better of it. I did, however, go to the store and buy bright-colored spandex and start dabbling in cocaine. Gotta get the feel of the era.
But before we dive into the matchups, I have a few burning questions:
1. Who are these Boston Celtics and what have they done with the team that went 27-27 from Christmas until Easter? I want to know.
2. Who do we think would smell worse after a 48-minute game, Rasheed “I look homeless and may or may not have showered in the last 72 hours” Wallace or Pau “my beard drips with sweat at a higher rate than Niagara Falls” Gasol?
3. Is the funeral for Adam Morrison’s NBA career happen before or after July 1st, when he becomes a free agent and not one team offers him a contract?
4. Can this really be a rubber match if LA didn’t beat Boston in last year’s Finals?
5. Did anyone else buy brightly colored spandex and start dabbling in cocaine, or was I the only one?
Good. Now that we have those out of the way, let’s start breaking this bad-boy down.
When Boston Has the Ball
Advantages for Boston:
1. For the first time in this postseason, Kobe is going to have to play defense. On every possession. Keep in mind that this will be the first series of these playoffs that he will have had to do that. Against Kevin Durant’s Team, Kobe spent most of his time guarding Thabo Sefolosha, who was nothing more than a spot-up shooter, and Kobe never took over Russell Westbrook duty full-time until Game 5. In the Utah series, Kobe was matched up against Wes Matthews and C.J. Miles, more spot-up shooters that couldn’t create their own offense and never had plays run for them. In the Phoenix series, Kobe was matched up against Grant Hill and Jared Dudley, who played basically identical roles for Phoenix as Matthews and Miles did for Utah. In the first three rounds, Kobe was basically a DH. He didn’t have to expend much energy on defense, and he was able to submit one of the finest stretches of offensive basketball of his career. Against Boston, however, Kobe will have no such luxury. He will either be matched up against Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen. If he defends Rajon Rondo (the most likely scenario), I would expect Boston to put Rondo in a lot of pick-and-roll situations with the intention of running Kobe into continuous screens to wear him out (the same strategy San Antonio always used against Steve Nash in the playoffs until this year when Tim Duncan inexplicably became unable to move). And if that is the plan for Boston, it’s a good one. One of the most underrated qualities about Boston’s big men is how well they set screens, especially Kendrick Perkins. If Boston runs Kobe into screens for 48 minutes and move Rondo around a lot, Kobe will eventually get tired. It’s just a fact. If Kobe tries to save his legs by going underneath every screen or playing off Rondo when Rondo doesn’t have the ball, it allows Rondo to slip under the basket where he can be so deadly on offensive rebounds or stripping opposing players when they come down with rebounds.
On the other hand, if Los Angeles has Kobe defend Ray Allen, it will most likely wear Kobe out even more. Allen will be in constant movement on baseline screens, pindowns, and curls, always getting hard screens and often double-screens. All it will do is put unnecessary wear on his legs and give Ray Allen even more motivation (for some reason, Allen and Kobe loathe each other. It’s not quite Crips vs. Bloods or Israel vs. Palestine, but it’s at least on the Uncle Jesse vs. Kimmy Gibbler level). Also, if Kobe defends Rondo and Derek Fisher guards Allen, Allen will be able to shoot over the top of Fisher whenever he wants.
[Devil’s Advocate Rebuttal: Rondo WOULD be bothered by Kobe’s height and length, and Kobe WOULD play off Rondo and dare him to shoot 20-footers. Also, Fisher’s one remaining redeeming quality on defense is his ability to punish big men when he runs through screens, something that would come in handy given all the screens Boston sets for Allen. Both of these things have to be mentioned]
2. If (and this is a big “if”) Kevin Garnett has fresh legs, he will be able to abuse the Laker big men. LA’s only reliable post defender is Bynum, and at this point Bynum is moving worse than Han Solo did in the beginning of Return of the Jedi while he was frozen in carbonite. Gasol’s post defense is fine if he’s up against Robin Lopez, Kyrylo Fesenko, or Nenad Krstic, but against Garnett, who has multiple reliable post moves and can step out and shoot the ball from 20 feet, he’s going to have problems. In fact, Boston has three big men that can step out and knock down jump shots: Garnett, Big Baby Davis, and Rasheed Wallace. If those guys can knock down shots and force Bynum, Gasol, and Odom to defend them 20 feet from the basket, it will give Rondo and Pierce all the more room to operate.
Advantages for Los Angeles
1. At this point in time, Ron Artest is on the planet to defend three NBA players, and that’s it: Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and Paul Pierce. That’s it. That’s the list. He swallows those guys up. If you’re feeling frisky, you could even toss in the Dirk-David West type of player. If you’re a forward that relies on a quirky high-post game with a lot of fakes and step-back jumpers, Ron Artest is NOT the guy that you want defending you. We saw what he did in Round 1 against Durant, holding him to 35% shooting and preventing him from having a single great game. I predict Pierce to have the same kind of troubles that Durant did against Artest. Against an un-disciplined defensive player (like, for example, just trying to think of one off the top of my head here…. Hmm… who fits that mold… oh, Vince Carter!), Pierce is going to be able to get that guy in the air, draw fouls, or drive by him for layups. In the Orlando series, Pierce scored 22, 28, 15, 32, 18, and 31 points and shot approximately 241 free throws over the course of the six games. Against Artest, he won’t have that type of success.
2. When Rondo is off the floor, Boston goes into their “let’s dribble around aimlessly and end up throwing up a contested 20-footer as the shot clock expires” offense, or as it’s otherwise known as, “The Tony Allen Special.” Boston’s 2nd unit offense is suspect, but the Celtics have counter-acted that by playing Rondo 46 minutes a game. However, if Rondo CAN’T, Boston is in trouble. Yeah, I know Nate Robinson stepped up big in Game 6 against Orlando, but the truth of the matter is that he was making bad decisions and taking bad shots, but getting bailed out because they were going in. That won’t always happen. A prime example of this: the fourth quarter of Game 6. Robinson came in, did basically the same exact routine as he did in the first half, only his shots weren’t falling, and Boston only scored THREE points in the first SEVEN minutes of the fourth quarter and had either a missed, contested shot or a turnover on eight straight possessions. Against Orlando, a predictable offensive team with limited ways to score, that’s okay. Against Los Angeles, a quirky offensive team with more weapons (and better weapons), that’s not okay. Boston can’t expect to hold LA to the same low totals that they held Orlando to. They’re going to need to score 95-100+ points if they want to win, and they can’t do that unless someone on their 2nd unit steps up.
When Los Angeles Has the Ball
Advantages for Los Angeles
1. Kobe.
2. Gasol.
Make no doubt about it, the two most talented offensive players in this series will both be wearing purple and gold. Kobe, specifically has been on a whole other level in this postseason. In his last 11 games, he’s scored 30 or more 10 times, and the one game that he didn’t score 30 (Game 2 vs. Phoenix), he handed out 13 assists and the Lakers won by double-digits. The popular rhetoric will say that “Kobe finally trusts his teammates” and “Kobe is so much different than he used to be,” while I firmly believe that the only difference between Kobe now and Kobe in 2003 and 2004 is that Kobe just makes more difficult shots than he used to. If you just look at the Phoenix series, he’s still taking 22-23 shots a game, and a lot of those shots were basically the same ones he was taking in the 2003 Western Semis vs. San Antonio or the 2004 Finals vs. Detroit, when he arguably cost Los Angeles both series with his constant refusal to defer to his teammates. Only now, those shots are going in, and everyone is praising him. In fact, they shouldn’t be praising him because he’s changed, they should be praising him because he’s better. And there’s a difference.
In Gasol, the Lakers have unquestionably the best and most consistent low-post scorer in the league. If you’re life depended on any big man from the 2009-2010 season to play with his back to the basket and either score or get fouled with 14 seconds left in a one-point game, your first pick would be Gasol, and there really isn’t a debate for anyone else, either. Everyone is talking about how poorly he played in the last three games of the Phoenix series against The Goofy Zone, but all those people are conveniently forgetting that Gasol was the reason Phoenix went to The Goofy Zone in the first place. In the first three games of the series, with Phoenix playing mostly man-to-man, Gasol shot 31 for 46 (67%) and basically single-handedly won Game 2. When Phoenix went to The Goofy Zone, all of a sudden Gasol was dealing with constant double-teams (and even triple-teams) and barely had any room to breathe. Boston won’t be playing any gimmicky defenses like Phoenix did. They’ll guard him 1-on-1 with Garnett, Perkins, or Wallace. As good of defenders as those guys are, Gasol will be able to score if you guard him 1-on-1, regardless of who that guy is. Your best hope is to hold him to around 50% shooting (as opposed to the 57% he’s shooting this postseason) and keep him in the 18-22 point range. This season, including the playoffs, when Gasol scores 25 or more points, the Lakers are 14-3. The Celtics will have to try to prevent that from happening.
Advantages for Boston
I’m going to have to play a little devil’s advocate here, because despite all of the things I mentioned in the previous two paragraphs, Boston’s defense is still the best defense in the league. Here are the rebuttals to the two advantages for LA:
Yes, Kobe is playing on a completely different level, and Gasol is an amazing post scorer, but also consider the following factors:
(1) So far in this postseason, Kobe has performed his magic against Kevin Durant’s Team (8th in defensive efficiency, but a team that had never been in the playoffs before), Utah (11th in defensive efficiency), and Phoenix (19th in defensive efficiency). Boston was ranked #5 in defensive efficiency in the regular season, have since turned UP their defensive pressure in the postseason, and they defend perimeter scorers better than any other team in the league (just ask Dwyane Wade and LeBron James).
(2) Durant’s Team, Utah, and Phoenix have no true shotblocking presence and don’t have big men that will give hard fouls on drives to the basket. Boston’s big men, however, are Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, and Rasheed Wallace, three guys that aren’t afraid to mix it up and will absolutely put Kobe on his backside every time he goes to the basket.
(3) All three teams Los Angeles has faced in these playoffs have lacked the size to deal with Gasol and Bynum at the same time. Because of this, Kobe has been able to work a lot of the time as a spot-up shooter and let Bynum and Gasol do a lot of the heavy lifting. Against Boston, LA won’t have that size advantage, meaning Kobe will have to shoulder more of a load offensively while also being forced to work on the defensive end, as explained earlier.
(4) Gasol and Odom play extremely well together, but as we saw in the 2008 Finals, Perkins and Garnett are capable of getting under their skin and rendering them basically useless. Yes, Gasol is better now than he was in 2008, but Perkins has improved also. He’s arguably the 2nd-best post defender in the league right now, behind Dwight Howard.
(5) In the 2008 Western Finals, Kobe vanquished San Antonio with VERY similar statistics to those he posted in the 2010 Western Finals, and everyone was saying the same things then as they are now (Kobe is on a whole other level, he can smell Jordan, he’s going to win). But Boston came out, knocked him around, knocked Gasol and Odom around, and beat the Lakers up so much over the course of the series that everyone on Los Angeles basically rolled over in Game 6.
Intangibles
1. Boston has the confidence that (1) they have never lost a playoff series with The Big Three plus Rondo healthy, and (2) they have always been able to confuse, beat up, and ultimately beat great perimeter scorers. Edge: Boston
2. The 2010 Celtics replaced James Posey, PJ Brown, Eddie House, and Leon Powe with Tony Allen, Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, and Shelden Williams. The 2008 Lakers have replaced Vladimir Radmanovic, Sasha Vujacic, Ronny Turiaf, and a pre-useful Jordan Farmar with Ron Artest, Shannon Brown, Andrew Bynum and a useful Jordan Farmar. Edge: Los Angeles
3. This 2010 Celtics team might actually be better than the 2008 team, because while Garnett has slipped considerably, Rondo has improved to the point that he’s now the best player on the team, and arguably a top-10 player in the league. Edge: Boston
4. Phil Jackson is 47-0 when he wins Game 1 of a Playoff series. Game 1 will be in Los Angeles, where the Lakers are 28-3 in the last three postseasons. Edge: Los Angeles
5. Because of the 2-3-2 format, Boston will in all likelihood have to win two games in Los Angeles because it is so hard to win all three home games in a row against a good team. In fact, in the history of the 2-3-2 format (dating back to 1985), the team with three straight home games has only swept all three of them twice (in 2004 and 2006). Edge: Los Angeles
6. (Counter to #4 and #5) Boston won two road games in Cleveland (best home team in the league) and two road games in Orlando (2nd-best home team in the league) and are one of the Lakers three postseason home losses since 2008. Edge: Boston
7. Kendrick Perkins has accumulated six technical fouls this postseason, and if he receives on more he will also receive a one-game suspension. Edge: Los Angeles
The Pick
I’m picking Boston, for the following reasons:
1. Yes, Boston would probably have to win two games on the road, but as I said, they won two games in Cleveland, and they won two games in Orlando, why can’t they win two games in Los Angeles? Game 1 starts at 9PM eastern, but since the game is in LA, that’s 6PM west-coast time, in Los Angeles. Two words: traffic nightmare. Don’t be surprised if half the crowd isn’t there at tip-time. What happens if Boston comes out swinging and builds up a 10-12 point lead by the time the crowd even gets there, settles in, and really becomes a factor at all? Do we really think that Boston, the best road team in the regular season, and the only team this year to have a winning record on the road in these playoffs, can’t win two games in Los Angeles? Please.
2. Everyone is talking about how Boston might not be able to score enough to beat LA. Well, what if the Boston plays defense the same way they did in 2008? Beat up Gasol and Odom, harass Kobe and force him to take contested jumpers, and seal off the paint. What happens then? Where is LA getting scoring from? Nobody has been able to explain this to me.
3. In the playoffs, everything comes down to matchups and execution. In my opinion, more matchups favor Boston, and I trust a veteran team with an All-World point guard to execute better than a team that features guys like Odom and Gasol (who check out if they’re getting roughed up), Artest (a loose cannon that can go off at any time), and Kobe (someone with a rich history of quitting on his teammates if things start going bad). Sorry, Laker fans, that’s just the way it is.
4. In most playoff series, the winner is usually the team that does their one “thing” better than anyone else. In 2009, LA’s best “thing” (Kobe) was better than anything Orlando did. In 2008, Boston’s best “thing” (defense) was better than anything LA did. That’s usually the way these series go. Considering Kobe hasn’t played a defense as good as Boston’s this postseason, my guess would be that Boston’s best “thing” (defense) is once again going to be better than LA’s best “thing” (Kobe).
The Pick: Boston in 6
« Back to News
Related Articles
More By This Author
All Things Sports
MLB
NFL
NBA
COLLEGE BB
|
NASCAR
COLLEGE FB
NHL
|
Contributors
Join Our Newsletter
| First Name: |
Last Name: |
| Email: |
|
Upcoming Games
There are no games currently scheduled. Please check back soon!
