Round 1 Preview
Friday, April 16, 2010Posted by Jeremy Conlin
Intro? Who needs an intro? The Playoffs start in less than 24 hours! Let’s jump right in.
EAST:
(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Chicago
Player to Watch: LeBron. Come on, like you were expecting anyone else?
Matchup to Watch: Anderson Varejao vs. Taj Gibson. Two defensive specialists at power forward that cause teams a lot of trouble with their energy and prowess on the offensive glass. Don’t be surprised to see Gibson matched up against LeBron from time to time either.
X-Factors: Kirk Hinrich and Shaquille O’Neal. For Chicago, if they want to have any hope of even forcing a Game 7, they’ll need Hinrich to come up huge in the playoffs. They’ll need him to be a knockdown shooter and also clamp down on Mo Williams and force him into bad shots. He’s come up big in the playoffs before, and they’ll need it again. For Cleveland, the Cavs have only had Shaq at 100% for one of the four games against Chicago this year, and that was in a 14-point win in the beginning of December (for the record, Shaq was healthy and playing in a Chicago win on November 5th, but that was before Cleveland had figured out how to use him correctly and their offense had more spacing issues than a parking lot run by a group of blind guys). As good as Joakim Noah is, he just isn’t big enough to deal with a fully motivated Shaq. If Cleveland can get Shaq rolling early, that opens up the floor for their shooters and LeBron going to the basket, and Chicago will have problems adjusting.
Scouting Report: The only games Chicago won for the season series was the 6th game of the season where Cleveland had the aforementioned kinks yet to be worked out, and also the Chicago win this past Thursday when LeBron didn’t play (and Cleveland still almost won both games). So if Cleveland is clicking on all cylinders, I don’t see too many advantages for Chicago to take advantage of. Rose should be able to make space in the paint off the dribble, but that’s not going to be enough to beat LeBron. I don’t see any way this series makes it back to Chicago for Game 6. I’d predict a sweep, but Cleveland might lose Game 3 if they get bored. Cleveland in 5.
(4) Boston vs. (5) Miami
Player to Watch: Dwyane Wade. Is this his last series in a Miami uniform? Expect this to be discussed in some form approximately 2,827,638 times over the next two weeks.
Matchup to Watch: Jermaine O’Neal vs. Rasheed Wallace. Which former Portland headcase is more washed up? Let’s find out! Wallace! O’Neal! Boston! Miami! It’s the NBA Playoffs on TNT!
X-Factors: Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Miami is playing their best basketball of the season. Boston is playing their worst. If Boston wants any hope in this series, they’re going to need to have Pierce and Allen turn back the clocks and submit A+ performances.
Scouting Report: I couldn’t find any odds on this series, but as soon as I do, I am going to be betting Miami with almost every dime I have to my name. If you don’t think that Dwyane Wade can single-handedly beat this embarrassment of a Celtics team, you’re kidding yourself. This is easily the worst 50-win team I’ve ever seen in my life. They started the season 23-5 and finished the season 27-27. They were 32-18 at the All-Star break and are 18-14 since. Since that 23-5 start, they have the same amount of 3-game losing streaks as they do 3-game winning streaks (4). Does that like a good team to you? Me Neither. Miami in 6.
(3) Atlanta vs. (6) Milwaukee
Player to Watch: Joe Johnson. For the third time in a row our Player to Watch for the series might be wearing a different uniform next season.
Matchup to Watch: John Salmons vs. Joe Johnson. Unfortunately, this will be the only East playoff series where the best player on each team will be matched up with each other (and no, sorry to disappoint you, but Paul Pierce isn’t the best player on the Celtics anymore. Rajon Rondo is). It’s also unfortunate that Bogut got hurt, robbing of me getting to see Bogut and Al Horford battle down low for seven straight games. Those two guys are probably my two favorite underrated centers in the league right now. It’s a shame.
X-Factor: Brandon Jennings. The Bucks will need him to play like he was back in November if Milwaukee is going to have any hope in this series. Atlanta’s backcourt defense is secretly terrible (especially Bibby and Crawford), and if Jennings is able to freelance off the dribble effectively, that will be a major positive for Milwaukee.
Scouting Report: The loss of Bogut doesn’t hurt as much defensively as some people might think. Yes, it robs them of their only shotblocker, but Atlanta is mainly a jumpshooting team anyway, so having a shotblocker like Bogut doesn’t really impact what Atlanta tries to do offensively. Where it will hurt them, however, is on the offensive end. Atlanta is a team that can be extremely dangerous if they get out in transition, and without Bogut, Milwaukee doesn’t have a player that can score with his back to the basket and really slow the game down. If Atlanta gets their running game going, the series could be over pretty quick. Atlanta in 5.
(2) Orlando vs. (7) Charlotte
Player to Watch: Dwight Howard. If he can completely take away Charlotte’s paint scoring and penetration game, this should be a short series.
Matchup to Watch: Gerald Wallace vs. Rashard Lewis. This is based on the assumption that Larry Brown is smart enough to guard Matt Barnes with Boris Diaw (knowing that Barnes isn’t good enough to take advantage of the mis-match, and even if he is, it’s not like he’s going to explode for 35). Wallace is the type of player that Boston and Cleveland would have committed a murder for in last year’s playoffs. He’s long, quick, and energetic, someone that Lewis can’t beat off the dribble, but he can’t post them up either because of their length. Boston had to rely on Glen Davis and Leon Powe in this role last year, and Cleveland was relying on Anderson Varejao and Ben Wallace. That won’t work. Gerald Wallace will work.
X-Factor: Vince Carter. Can Orlando count on him to show up every night? How about when he’s matched up with Captain Jack, who you KNOW is going to show up every night. Go watch the tape of the 2007 Golden State/Dallas series and how Jackson absolutely throttled Dirk Nowitzki defensively and pretty much single-handedly swung that series. And that was against Dirk, who’s a pretty tough dude. How do you think Vince Carter is going to respond? My guess is not well.
Scouting Report: Orlando’s biggest advantage in this series is their depth. As crazy as this sounds, basically everything else is either a wash or an advantage for Charlotte. Charlotte is the #1 defensive team in the league and they match up pretty well across the board. Felton can match Nelson, Jackson/Wallace/Diaw cancel out with Carter/Barnes/Lewis, and Howard against Charlotte’s bigs looks like an egregious mismatch at first glance, but between Tyson Chandler (secretly playing well lately), Theo Ratliff, Nazr Mohammed, and DeSagana Diop, they have 24 fouls to beat up on Howard with. If they can force Howard to shoot 14-18 free throws every night, they’ll be in good shape. Where it swings in Orlando’s favor is that the Magic can go to the bench and grab J.J. Redick, Brandon Bass, Marcin Gortat, Ryan Anderson, Jason Williams, and Mickael Pietrus, while Charlotte is relying on D.J. Augustin, Tyrus Thomas… and that’s it. Ultimately, I think that’s the difference. Orlando in 7.
WEST
(1) Los Angeles vs. (8) Kevin Durant’s Team
Player to Watch: Andrew Bynum. If he’s back and playing at 100%, this series will be over quick. If not, it could get interesting.
Matchup to Watch: Kevin Durant vs. Ron Artest. This is actually a very good matchup for Durant. Artest is more suited to guard the Carmelo/LeBron/Pierce types that have games more based on physicality and play in the high post. Durant can just beat Artest off the dribble and get into the paint, or if he doesn’t feel like it, he can just shoot over him. It will be telling to see if the Lakers stick with Artest on Durant if Durant really gets it going early. My crazy idea: Throw Lamar Odom at him. Either go super big ball with Odom, Gasol, and Bynum in the frontcourt, or just cross-match and play Odom against Durant and Artest against Jeff Green (a much better matchup for Artest, by the way). Odom is long enough to bother Durant’s shot, and he’s quick enough to limit Durant’s penetration off the dribble. If you’re Durant, you feel more confident playing against Artest than you would against Odom. You just do.
X-Factors: Jeff Green, Nick Collison, and Serge Ibaka. At least scoring wise, Durant and Kobe are going to cancel each other out. Durant’s Team has a huge advantage at point guard, and Russ Westbrook will be able to do pretty much whatever he wants. The place where LA has a big advantage is with Odom, Gasol, and Bynum. Collison and Ibaka are two of the best post defenders in the league, so if they can hold the LA trio to only 75-80% of what they might normally do, Durant’s Team has a puncher’s chance in this series.
Scouting Report: Kevin Durant is more than capable of winning three games in this series all by himself. The only thing that worries me is that Durant has literally zero big-game experience. Even in college, he got bounced from the NCAA’s in the 2nd round. On the other hand, he just strikes me as someone that’s completely unflappable, even at such a young age. Thabo Sefolosha should do a good job of at least making Kobe work for his 28 points, and that’s really all you can ask for. In a seven game series, you’re only going to be able to really shut down Kobe once, so Durant better be ready to step up that night. In the end, it really comes down to Kobe and the Lakers having put in their playoff reps over the last two seasons, and Durant’s Team… well, they haven’t. They should be competitive enough to make it interesting, but not enough to make anyone sweat. Lakers in 6.
(4) Denver vs. (5) Utah
Player to Watch: Chauncey Billups. While his “Mr. Big Shot” Nickname may or may not be deserved, he did come up huge in last year’s playoffs, averaging a 21/7/4 with 47% shooting from downtown in 16 games, outplaying Chris Paul and Jason Kidd in the process. He’s going to be matched up Deron Williams, who was definitively the best point guard in the league this season (for the record, he won this title by default because Chris Paul missed 30+ games. If Paul had been healthy, we wouldn’t even have to broach this subject), and if Chauncey can re-create his playoff heroics from last season, Utah will have problems.
Matchup to Watch: Kenyon Martin vs. Carlos Boozer. Both guys are coming into the postseason banged up, Martin with his knee and Boozer with his ribs. If Boozer can’t get into a rhythm, either because of his own injury or because Kenyon Martin knocks him around, Utah really has no chance in this series. However, if Boozer is 100% and Kenyon Martin isn’t, this matchup could single-handedly swing the series in Utah’s favor.
X-Factor: Home court-advantage. Utah finished 32-9 at home (tied for 6th-best in the league) and Denver finished 34-7 at home (tied for 2nd-best in the league). I wouldn’t expect either team to win a game on the road, giving the edge to Denver, who has home-court advantage in the series.
Scouting Report: Like we covered earlier, home-court advantage is going to play a major role in this series. Utah will have to win a game on the road if they want to win the series. However, if Denver pulls out a road win, it all but guarantees them a win. Also, with Andrei Kirilenko injured, Utah is left with nobody to guard Carmelo Anthony, which wouldn’t be that much of an issue, except for the fact that he’s Denver’s best player. Denver in 6.
(3) Phoenix vs. (6) Portland
Player to Watch: Amar’e Stoudemire. I have long been a critic of Stoudemire, but he’s come up big in the playoffs when the money is on the table (with the exception of 2008 when that entire Phoenix team came apart at the seams after blowing Game 1 against the Spurs). It’ll be interesting to see how Portland defends him. I expect they’ll guard him with LaMarcus Aldridge and then use Camby as a weakside helper on pick-and-rolls, which is probably the right thing to do. If Amar’e can really dial it up and dominate a game or two, this could be a Phoenix sweep.
Matchup to Watch: Jerryd Bayless vs. Leandro Barbosa. With Brandon Roy out with a torn meniscus, Bayless is going to have to play out of his mind if Portland wants to have any hope. And when I say “play out of his mind,” I mean averaging at least 20 points for the series and outplay Barbosa in every game. For Phoenix, Barbosa can render this entire matchup moot just by showing up every night and being effective. It is important to note, however, that he’s never done that in the playoffs before… ever.
X-Factor: Portland’s home crowd. Along with Utah, Portland’s crowd is the only one that can consistently sway officials and turn unwinable games into winnable ones. This is pretty important, because if Phoenix can steal either Game 3 or Game 4 in Portland, the series could end when the series shifts back to Phoenix in Game 5. If it goes back to Game 5 tied at 2-2, the series will probably go 7, and anything can happen at that point.
Scouting Report: Without Brandon Roy this season, Portland went 8-9. That’s the team that’s going up against Phoenix, only the hottest team in the league entering the postseason. Phoenix in 5.
(2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio
Player to Watch: Jason Kidd. Seeing him attempt to “guard” Tony Parker and George Hill for 38 minutes every night will be worth it.
Matchup to Watch: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Whoever Popovich tries to have guard Dirk. The most logical choice will be the McDyess/DeJuan Blair combo, which could go in a number of different directions. Dirk can definitely beat those guys off the dribble on those herky-jerky drives he makes from the elbow, but they’re also long enough to bother him if he tries to do anything else. I could see Dirk going off like he did in the 2006 West Finals, and I could also see him getting throttled like he did in the first round in 2007. Basically, I have no idea. That’s my expert opinion.
X-Factor: San Antonio’s 5th Gear. I have no idea about this. Does it even exist? Can they get to it? Have they been coasting all season, waiting for the playoffs? If Duncan has that 5th gear and we just haven’t seen it at all this season except for a few games (like his 21 point, 27 rebound explosion against Atlanta). If that 5th gear is there, and San Antonio can find it, watch out. This team could unleash holy hell for the next 8 weeks. If it isn’t there, or they can’t find it, they could be out of the playoffs by next weekend. Basically, I have no idea. That’s my expert opinion.
Scouting Report: Another matchup to watch that I didn’t list in the previous section is George Hill vs. J.J. Barea and Rocky Beaubois. Hill is probably the best of the three, but the collection of Barea and Beaubois is probably better than Hill and San Antonio’s other bench guards, either Roger Mason, Keith Bogans, or Garret Temple. Hill is working back from an ankle injury, so that could swing the matchup even more in Dallas’ favor. Overall, most of the stats and the matchups favor Dallas, but I’m going to go with my gut here. San Antonio in 6.
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