NBA Power Poll 2.0
Monday, February 1, 2010Posted by Jeremy Conlin
Are you ready to rank all 30 teams and make dumb one-liners along the way? I am.
The Isiah Thomas Division
30. New Jersey Nets
I really don’t know what else to tell you at this point…
29. Minnesota Timberwolves
So much for my idea that this team could play .500 ball for the rest of the season. They’ve got a bunch of pieces I like (Jefferson, Love, Brewer, Flynn), but they won’t be able to win games unless they can get some scoring from their swing positions. The good news? They have a ton of cap space this summer. The bad news? Their franchise is located in Minnesota. Not to beat this into the ground, but would you like this team more or less if their backcourt was Ricky Rubio and Stephen Curry instead of Jonny Flynn and Damien Wilkins? I’d like this team’s future a lot more if David Kahn wasn’t prominently involved.
28. Washington Wizards
Hey, what do Gilbert Arenas and Tom Hanks have in common? They both make $20 Million a year and neither has played more than 32 NBA games in a season over the last 3 years.
27. Sacramento Kings
These guys started 13-14, but have gone 3-16 over the last six weeks. The main problem is that a backcourt of Tyreke Evans and Kevin Martin just won’t work. Of course, that begs the question, “Why the hell is Tyreke Evans playing point guard?” He isn’t a point guard. It’s not going to work. I don’t get why they don't try to play Evans at small forward. I mean, the dude is the size of a Ford F-150. Also, Beno Udrih is having the best year of his career. Why not play Udrih, Martin, Evans, Jason Thompson, and Jon Brockman, and use Nocioni and Omri Casspi as your energy guys off the bench? Or would that make too much sense?
The Basketball Equivalent of Vanilla Ice
26. Golden State Warriors
Forget just how reprehensibly bad this team is, can anyone explain Corey Maggette’s month of January? He averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds, and shot 90% on 12 free throw attempts per game. I think that Maggette plays progressively better the more he hates his coach.
25. Detroit Pistons
Hey, any time you can tie up 40% of your cap for the next four years to grossly overpay Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon, and Charlie Villanueva and guarantee yourself 50 losses every season that you do, you have to do it. Every time.
24. Indiana Pacers
I’m going to ask a question, and you’re going to think I’m making a sarcastic criticism, but I honestly don’t know the answer. Here we go:
Does Danny Granger know that he’s allowed to dribble with his left hand?
I’m serious. I’m not making a joke. I honestly don’t know.
23. Milwaukee Bucks
Well, the good news is they finally found a potential franchise point guard.
The bad news is that this comes four years after they passed on Chris Paul and Deron Williams to draft an Australian center that isn’t one of the top 8 centers in the league. Also, their potential franchise point guard might not even run their offense as well as Luke Ridnour does. But hey, he scored 55 points against one of the worst defensive teams in recent NBA history. At least he’s got that going for him.
22. Philadelphia 76ers
Hey, speaking of January splits that make no sense, joining Corey Maggette in the club is Samuel Dalembert. Check this out:
November: 5.9 Points, 8.1 Rebounds, 45% FG in 15 games
December: 6.5 Points, 8.9 Rebounds, 50% FG in 14 games
January: 9.8 Points, 12.3 Rebounds, 61% FG in 15 games
I’m a guy that likes things to make sense, and these make absolutely no sense. Help me.
The Captains of Incompetence
21. Los Angeles Clippers
Who had January 12th in the “When Will The Clippers Quit On Mike Dunleavy?” Office Pool? I owe someone some money.
20. New York Knicks
I’m going to tell you guys a secret that I may be very ashamed of later. I normally hate watching bad teams like New Jersey or Detroit, and normally I would hate watching this Knicks team, but I effing love watching this team. I just love watching David Lee. Seriously, how many teams run their offense through a 6-8 white guy playing point center? If New York can’t find a way to keep him next summer, then they’ve failed as an organization.
The Collapsing Tower of Pisa
19. Houston Rockets
I think we’re starting to figure out that you can only get by on grittiness and super-duper-smallball for so long. If I were Houston, I would try to move McGrady’s $22 Million expiring contract for a decent big man and possibly a few other pieces. Would the Knicks be interested in McGrady for Eddy Curry, Al Harrington, Danilo Gallinari and Toney Douglas? If the Knicks are serious about trying to enter this summer with a $0 cap figure, wouldn’t they have to consider this? And if you’re Houston, would you be willing to pay $11 Million next season to Eddy Curry for the chance to have Gallinari and Douglas for four seasons? I think I would. Maybe Houston throws in their 1st-rounder this year to sweeten the deal. If New Orleans is going to blow up the team, they probably won’t do it this season, they’ll wait until this summer to see if they can unload some of their bad contracts in sign-and-trade deals, so I doubt they mega-deals involving Houston and New Orleans will happen this season. Given that, I think this is the best way for Houston to improve this season and beyond.
18. Miami Heat
I don’t get why Miami fans think that (A) a player like Carlos Boozer or Amar’e Stoudemire is just going to fall into their lap at the trade deadline, or (B) even if that doesn’t happen, Dwyane Wade won’t bolt to Chicago or New York this summer.
Seriously, why would Utah want to trade Boozer for Jermaine O’Neal’s expiring contract? If Utah is going to deal Boozer, it’s because they want to get some value for him before he leaves in free agency. Jermaine doesn’t give them any value. It gives them a weaker team this season, and they’re already close enough to the luxury tax threshold that they aren’t worried about it anymore. The only way Miami could get them to bite is if they offered to take on Andrei Kirilenko’s $18 Million cap figure for next season, but Miami isn’t about to tie up their cap space in Kirilenko if they want to be able to re-sign Wade as well as another max player. The best trade they can make would be to deal Haslem and Beasley for Boozer (unlikely on Miami’s part) or to try to trade O’Neal for Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler (unlikely on Washington’s part). If I had to put money on it, Dwyane Wade will be playing in a Bulls uniform this time next year.
17. Phoenix Suns
1st in the league in offense, 29th in the league in defense. What else is new?
The funny thing is, statistically, Steve Nash is having his best season ever. I don’t know if this should be considered more impressive considering his shooters and big men are significantly worse than they were 2 or 3 or 4 years ago, or if it should be considered less impressive because his team is only seven games above .500 and they’re barely hanging on to the 7th seed in the West. I say less.
Hanging Around Like Visanthe Shiancoe
16. New Orleans Hornets
Dear Utah Jazz Fans,
In 2008 and 2009, Chris Paul’s team won more games than Deron Williams’ team (105 for Paul and the Hornets, 102 for Williams and the Jazz) despite having a far inferior supporting cast and coaching staff, and was noticeably better statistically (22/11/5 with 2 steals and 49/37/86 shooting for Paul, 19/10/3 with 1 steal and 48/34/82 shooting for Williams). Just because the Jazz are two games ahead of New Orleans in the Western Conference standings with a far superior team, a better coach, and a better home-court advantage does NOT all of a sudden automatically make Deron Williams a better point guard. Sorry, try again.
Sincerely, Every Rational NBA Fan
And for everyone else, how freaking amazing is Chris Paul? New Orleans is 26th in Rebound Rate, middle of the pack in all the relevant shooting stats, 15th in offensive efficiency, 19th in defensive efficiency, and they’re 9-16 on the road. And this team is 5 games over .500 in a conference where 11 of the 15 teams are over .500? How is this possible? Can everyone just admit that Chris Paul is hands down the best point guard of his generation, potentially the greatest pure-point guard ever and potentially one of the 30 greatest players ever if he picks up a ring or two, and that Deron Williams is (at best) a perennial All-Star and one of the better point guards of his generation, and, if he’s lucky, one of the 100 best players ever. Someday we’ll compare Chris Paul to Isiah Thomas, John Stockton, and Jason Kidd in the discussion of “Greatest Pure Point Guards Ever.” Someday we’ll compare Deron Williams to Mo Cheeks, Mark Jackson, and Tim Hardaway in the discussion of “Really Good Point Guards That Ultimately Don’t Matter.”
15. Portland Trail Blazers
Greg Oden has played a total of 82 games in three years since being drafted. In 34 of those 82 games, Greg was called for five or six fouls. This whole Oden/Durant thing is starting to get awkward. Well, at least Joel Pryzbilla can be his backup. What’s that? Oh, boy… Well, at least Brandon Roy doesn’t have a litany of health issues… He does? Uh-oh… Okay, well at least Portland didn’t give a 5-year, $65 Million extension to a power forward that gives you no rebounding or shot blocking … (Listening) … Jeeeeez, yeah, this is definitely starting to get awkward.
14. San Antonio Spurs
I think I can sum up this entire San Antonio Spurs season in two sentences:
Against teams .500 or over, the Spurs are 11-17. Against teams that are under .500, they’re 16-2.
Did Doc Brown Take Me To 2015 And Not Tell Me?
13. Charlotte Bobcats
It’s hard to believe that I left anything out of my 4500-word Mid-Season Awards, but I didn’t include my ballot for Defensive Player of Year. If I had, Gerald Wallace would have been the heavy favorite. Nearly two weeks later, he’s still leading after locking down JR Smith, Rashard Lewis, Joe Johnson, and Dwyane Wade in four straight games. Every time I watch Charlotte he jumps off the screen. He’s all over the place. He contests every shot, every passing lane, and he can defend three positions. The top four of the Eastern Conference will be Cleveland, Boston, Atlanta, and Orlando in some order. And let me tell you, whoever ends up playing Charlotte in the first round will want no part of the Bobcats. This is a shockingly good team.
12. Kevin Durant’s Team
You know what? I’ve done more than my share of Kevin Durant gushing this season. Instead, let’s talk about how Kevin Durant’s Team is 4th in the league in defensive efficiency despite having no consistent shot-blockers and featuring two members of their starting lineup that are defensive liabilities (Durant and Nenad Krstic). I have to give the credit here to Russ Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha, unquestionably the best defensive backcourt in the league right now. They force turnovers, force bad shots, and run the other team off the three-point line. Just tons of athletes doing athletic things.
Also worth mentioning: this team has enough cap space to offer a max contract this summer. If you think about it, how many teams can definitively say that? New York, New Jersey, Miami, Chicago, the Clippers, Minnesota, and Kevin Durant’s Team are the only ones that can say that. We can rule out Minnesota because no big-time free agent will sign there. That leaves 5 other teams that can offer max deals to the following players: LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Boozer, Amar’e, and Joe Johnson, as well as smaller but still expensive deals to players like Ray Allen, Rudy Gay, David Lee, and Manu Ginobili. Obviously all of the big-name players will want to sign in big markets, but what if those big market teams use up all their cap space and someone like Carlos Boozer all of a sudden is left between a max offer from Sam Presti and Kevin Durant’s Team and a smaller offer from say New York or Miami? Wouldn’t one of those guys want to team up with Durant, Green, Westbrook, Harden, and Scotty Brooks? Underrated development down the stretch.
11. Memphis Grizzlies
In 2008, Memphis wrapped up Pau Gasol in a bow and handed him to the Lakers, turning them into an immediate contender. Last year, Memphis gave away Kyle Lowry to Houston, and he gave them the spark off the bench that they needed, and then Houston nearly upset the Lakers in the Western Semis. So I guess my question is this: When does Memphis trade Rudy Gay to San Antonio for Michael Finley, Keith Bogans, and a 2015 2nd-round pick?
Finally Deciding to Show Up
10. Toronto Raptors
Hey, remember when I picked this team to finished 5th in the East, and all of you laughed at me? And then remember when they started the season 11-17, and all of you laughed at me again? Well, take a look at how they ended December, and then take a look at how they did in January, and then take a look at their place in the standings. All of you can suck it.
9. Chicago Bulls
Less than two weeks ago I handed them The 2007-2008 Warriors Memorial “You Thought We'd Take Another Leap, But Instead We Went Backward Because Expectations Were Too High, We Tinkered With Our Chemistry And Our Young Guys Tuned Out Their Coach" Award. Since then, they’ve won five straight, all on the road, four against winning teams. I think they’re finally figuring it out. All of a sudden we’re getting a career year out of Joakim Noah, Luol Deng’s best season since 2007, and Derrick Rose has taken a incredibly quiet leap over the last month (averaging 23/6/4 in January). Should I just copy and paste the section from the Raptors with links to the relevant Chicago schedules and standings? Or would that be taking it over the top?
Fatally Flawed?
8. Boston Celtics
This is a conditional ranking. If the Celtics end the charade that Kevin Garnett is 100% and shelf him for another week or two to allow him to really, truly get healthy, there is no scenario in which Orlando can beat Boston in a 7-game series. None. A healthy Boston team with home-court advantage would win that series in 5. Then again, there’s no scenario in my mind that Boston would sit Garnett unless he actually re-injures his knee, at which point it might be too late in the season for Garnett to ever come back at 100%. Celtics fans, be very concerned. Garnett is not healthy.
Also, the indisputable facts are that the Celtics have lost their last three games, seven of their last 10, and 11 of their last 17. Translation: Another week like this and Boston fans should start going into full-scale panic mode.
7. Orlando Magic
Well, I finally figured out Dwight Howard. Are you excited? I know I am. Here we go: When he plays against either awkward-looking white stiffs or overpaid washed-up centers, he’s essentially unguardable. Check out these games he’s put up over the last month:
Jan. 25 @ MEM (vs. Marc Gasol/Zach Randolph): 9-14 FG, 27 Pts, 15 Reb 11 FTA
Jan. 22 vs. SAC (vs. Spencer Hawes/Jon Brockman): 4-7 FG, 19 Pts, 15 Reb, 12 FTA
Jan. 20 vs. IND (vs. Roy Hibbert/Troy Murphy): 8-13 FG, 32 Pts, 11 Reb, 24 FTA
Jan. 12 @ SAC (vs. Spencer Hawes/Jon Brockman): 9-15 FG, 30 Pts, 16 Reb, 17 FTA
However, when he goes against either a bigger center than can push him around or a quicker center than can be a pest and bother him, he becomes a non-factor on offense. Check out these games from the six weeks:
Jan. 23 @ CHA (vs. N. Mohammed/D. Diop): 4-11 FG, 10 Pts, 20 Reb, 6 TO, 4 FTA
Jan. 13 @ DEN (vs. Nene/Birdman Anderson): 1-7 FG, 8 Pts, 13 Reb, 5 TO, 8 FTA
Jan. 9 vs. ATL (vs. Al Horford): 4-8 FG, 12 Pts, 7 Reb, 4 TO, 6 FTA
Jan. 2 @ CHI (vs. Joakim Noah): 3-7 FG, 9 Pts, 13 Reb, 2 TO, 8 FTA
Dec. 25 vs. BOS (vs. Kendrick Perkins): 1-7 FG, 5 Pts, 20 Reb, 7 TO, 4 FTA
So, if Howard can play against unathletic, un-intelligent stiffs that let him go by them every time, Howard can put up big numbers. But against someone that knows how to defend him (take away the baseline and force him into running jump-hooks) and can do so without fouling, he disappears offensively. The problem for Orlando is that all the relevant teams in the East have a center that can give him problems. Boston has Perkins, Cleveland has Shaq (who Howard always seems to be flustered by), Atlanta has Al Horford, Chicago has Joakim Noah, and Toronto has Andrea Bargnani. Oh, wait, Bargnani is terrible. Scratch that thought.
Also, one last note on Orlando. The Vince Carter trade was an unequivocal disaster. He’s posting career lows in FG% (38.5%), 3PT% (30.2%), Free Throw Attempts, Scoring, Rebounding, and Assists. Thursday night against Boston, Orlando somehow snuck out a win despite an unmitigated disaster of a performance by Carter: 2-13 FG, 6 Points, 2 Assists, 3 Turnovers. The ball constantly stopped whenever it got to Carter, and Orlando finished with just eight assists on 32 made field goals. I found it very telling that Stan Van Gundy went with J.J. Redick at shooting guard for the entire fourth quarter despite the fact that Redick didn’t play exceptionally well until the game-winning shot. For all of those Orlando fans out there, let me remind you that you had a +15 advantage on the glass, held Pierce and Garnett to a combined 5-20 from the floor, and were the beneficiaries of some questionable officiating (30 fouls called on Boston, only 19 on Orlando, Orlando shot 40 free throws, Boston shot 18), yet still only won by 2 at home on a layup that never would have happened if Kevin Garnett was still alive. Settle down.
The Pseudo-Contenders
6. Dallas Mavericks
They’ve hit a small speed-bump of late, losing a few games that they probably should have won, but it’s unclear whether Josh Howard is 100% or not. As for their future, I think Dallas and Denver have very similar teams with similar flaws. They both have their share of knuckleheads (Gooden, Howard, Dampier for Dallas, Birdman, Martin, JR Smith for Denver), but at the end of the day, I trust Chauncey Billups to keep his guys in line more than I trust Dirk and Jason Kidd. Just by a smidge.
5. Atlanta Hawks
Now that they’ve gone 4-0 against the Celtics this season, I think it’s about time we start taking the Hawks seriously. They way their offense is assembled, I just find it difficult to believe that any team will be able to shut them down for and entire playoff series. For the past two years, their crunch time possessions usually consisted of Joe Johnson going 1-on-5 and trying to create a shot. Now, if you have LeBron or Dwyane Wade going 1-on-5, that just might work. If you have Joe Johnson going 1-on-5, that won’t work. This year, however, they’ve got Johnson setting everything up, only now they have Jamal Crawford as a sidekick, and Josh Smith and Al Horford are both having their best offensive seasons of their career. On any given night, the odds of one of those guys (or two of those guys) being able to carry Atlanta offensively is pretty close to certain. The stats back that up, they’re ranked 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency. The only problem they have is that they have nobody on their roster that can even come close to defending LeBron James, but on the other hand, nearly every other team in the league has that same problem.
4. Utah Jazz
I’m still not 100% sure I’m ready to take this team seriously yet. Yes, I’m aware they’ve won five straight and nine of their last ten, but those wins do include Sacramento, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Miami, home for Phoenix, and Minnesota. However, they win a game against Cleveland that they had no business winning, and they also blew the doors off Portland and San Antonio, both of those games coming on the road. Over the next two weeks they play Dallas, Portland, Denver and the Lakers, so we’ll get a better sense of where they stand after that. The funny thing about their recent stretch is that Boozer hasn’t played his best, and Deron Williams has struggled as well. What has been happening is guys like Paul Millsap and Andrei Kirilenko have been stepping up and contributing, which is what this team has been missing really since 2007. If they can continue to get consistent production out of their bench, they could make noise in the Western playoffs. The only thing that really holds them back is that they defensively they can’t really match up with any of the other elite teams out west. Against LA, they have nobody to guard Kobe, and they don’t have the size to deal with Bynum and Gasol. Against Dallas, Nowitzki would get any shot he wanted and JJ Barea would run amok if they played him at shooting guard, and against Denver, Carmelo would just post up anywhere he wanted and for some reason Williams has always been flummoxed by Chauncey Billups. So while I remain cautiously optimistic for Utah’s playoff hopes, my gut says that they’ll fall well short of the finals.
The Contenders
3. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Denver Nuggets
I’m putting these teams in this order for two reasons:
1. First, despite Carmelo Anthony being in and out of the lineup with a sprained ankle, Denver won eight straight before falling to Kevin Durant’s Team, and then regrouped and won in San Antonio, again without Carmelo. On the other hand, the Lakers have looked less than spectacular, losing to Cleveland and Toronto, and only showing up for one quarter in games against New York, Philly, Washington, and Boston. Against New York, Philly, and Washington, they were able to pull away late, but against Boston, they needed a big comeback to win even though Boston essentially got no-shows from Allen, Garnett, and their entire bench. The way Los Angeles has been playing lately, it looks to me as if they’re having trouble staying motivated on a night-to-night basis, which is surprising for a team led by Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher.
2. Secondly, is it just me, or does Denver (at least on paper) look like a really bad matchup for the Lakers? Based on what we saw in the Western Finals last season, the teams were fairly even, but the Lakers won because Denver was forced to defend Kobe during crunch time with J.R. Smith. This year, Denver can use Arron Afflalo, who always seems to defend Kobe well, and the Nene/Kenyon Martin combo is the tough, physical frontcourt that can cause Gasol and Odom to check out. On the other end, Ty Lawson is exactly the type of quick guard that has given LA problems since 2008, and I really haven’t seen anything that tells me that Ron Artest will be able to check Carmelo. The obvious rebuttal to this idea would be that Denver doesn’t have the maturity or the mental discipline to beat Los Angeles in a seven game series, which I concede is a fair counter-point, but I do think that LA is significantly more vulnerable this year than they were last year.
The Favorite
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
What has impressed me the most about this team over the past two weeks is how little they miss Mo Williams. In the six games that Williams has been out of the lineup, LeBron has taken over the point guard duties and averaged 10.0 assists per game. Also, Shaq has turned back the clock and shot nearly 70% from the field. Boobie Gibson has also scored in double figures in each of his five starts. If you watched either of their last two games against Indiana or the Clippers, you could tell within five minutes of the game starting that there wasn’t any scenario in which Cleveland was going to lose the game.
However, I still feel that they are too predictable offensively to be declared the prohibitive favorite at this point in the season. If a team runs into them on a random night, it will be tough for them to prepare for LeBron and he’ll be able to just overpower them. Over the course of a seven-game series, though, a good defensive team will be able to adjust and either limit LeBron or take away his supporting cast. Orlando did this perfectly in last year’s Eastern Finals, basically removing Mo Williams and Delonte West from the picture and attacking them on defense.
However, limiting LeBron is only one part of the equation. Cleveland is still an elite defensive team, so if you want to beat them, you need to be able to create matchup problems for them on defense. Orlando did this last year with the Turkoglu/Lewis high screen (as I’ve written about ad nauseum) and Cleveland couldn’t defend it. Cleveland also didn’t have enough size to deal with Dwight Howard, and he single-handedly won Orlando Game 6. This year, the only team that I can see being able to create matchup problems for Cleveland would be Toronto, with the Bosh/Bargnani combo, but Toronto also doubles as the worst defensive team in the league.
Going back the other way, I believe that Cleveland has a distinct advantage over both Los Angeles and Boston. Against Los Angeles, Cleveland can go big with LeBron, Varejao/Hickson, and Shaq, and they can just clobber Kobe and Gasol in the paint. We saw this on Christmas Day, and we saw it in their game at the end of January. Los Angeles simply didn’t have the physicality to deal with Cleveland’s bigs. Against Boston, I think Cleveland would be able to go small, with LeBron at power forward, and the Celtics wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of dealing with him if Garnett wasn’t 100% healthy.
So, if you made me bet my life on any one team to win this year’s NBA title, I would bet on Cleveland. If they swing a trade of Antawn Jamison or Andre Iguodala, I would feel even better. But if Boston miraculously gets healthy and the Lakers start taking HGH, the gap could get a lot closer. As for right now, though, I am a witness.
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