Size Matters
Sunday, January 10, 2010Posted by Jeremy Conlin
It’s something we always hear as basketball fans, especially over the last few years. Little phrases, like “going small,” or “smallball,” or “spreading the floor,” or “stretch forward.” But really, what do they all mean? Why do we hear them?
In short, because over the last 10 years, the league has changed dramatically. But for some reason, I feel like many people haven’t realized it yet. The league has changed from a big-man’s league to a small-man’s league. Look at all of the great teams of the 60s, 70s, and 80s. You had Russell and the Celtics, Wilt and the 76ers, Kareem and the Bucks, Wilt and the Lakers, Kareem and the Lakers, Walton and the Blazers, Moses and the 76ers. All of those teams were centered around a premier center (pun absolutely intended). They only great team that didn’t really fit the bill was the Celtics with Larry Bird, but at the same time, Bird was a forward, coupled with Kevin McHale and Robert Parish, forming arguably the greatest frontcourt in NBA history. Next, look at all of the great centers and forwards that entered the league in the 80s and early 90s. Sampson, Hakeem, Barkley, Ewing, Robinson, Malone, Mutombo, O’Neal, Mourning. It was a league dominated by great centers and back-to-the-basket players. This was one of the added mystique’s for players like Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas, and Michael Jordan. They were guards (and one small forward) that were dominating a league that was supposed to be dominated by centers.
Fast-forward to 2009. If you ask an NBA fan who the best players in the league are, you might hear five or six names before you hear a center or true post player. LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Paul, Durant, Carmelo, Brandon Roy. Is Tim Duncan or Dwight Howard definitely better than any of them? I’m not sure at this point.
But returning to my original question: What exactly is going small? Why does it work?
Going small means that you’re taking a player that normally plays shooting guard, and playing him at small forward. Or taking a small forward and playing him at power forward. Or taking a power forward and playing him at center. This gives you more quickness, and oftentimes, more shooters on the floor. Why does this help? Because of Groundbreaking Change #1.
Groundbreaking Change #1: The Rule Changes
The hand-check used to be a defensive maneuver in which the defender would place one (or both) of his hands on the dribbler in order to impede his progress. For those of you who don’t know, this is now illegal. Stricter hand-check rules and stricter enforcement of blocking fouls came about before the 2004-2005 NBA season. In a related story, directly after those rule changes, Steve Nash won back-to-back MVP awards. Coincidence? I think not.
This tweak in the rules made it significantly easier for perimeter players to penetrate off the dribble and get into the lane. Prior to 2005, if I were trying to beat you off the dribble, you could just nudge me to one side or the other towards the help defense. After the rule change, the defensive player had to be better at moving their feet and staying in front of the dribbler. Well, in the understatement of the century, that’s a lot harder to do than to just push the other player with your hands. After the rule changes, perimeter players, most notably point guards, had much more freedom to create off the dribble. If you look at assist per game statistics, you’ll find that no players averaged more than 9 assists per game in 2003, and only four averaged more than 8 APG. In 2004, Jason Kidd led the league with 9.2 per game, but only three players averaged more than 7.5. The next year, after the rule changes, we saw Steve Nash jump from 8.8 APG in 2004 to 11.5 APG in 2005. Players like Allen Iverson, Brevin Knight, Steve Francis, and LeBron James each saw significant jumps in their assist averages.
Or, we can look at the number of elite point guards in the NBA (and by “elite,” I mean potential four or more-time All-Stars): Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Jason Kidd, Tony Parker. The list goes on and on. In the 80s there was Magic Johsnon, Isiah Thomas, Mo Cheeks, and… that’s it. Was Reggie Theus as good as Deron Williams or Rajon Rondo? I’m not sure. If Reggie Theus had played with today’s rules, maybe his assist averages jump a bit, as well as maybe his scoring and shooting percentages, and maybe we remember him differently. In the 90s, we had John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Kevin Johnson, Mark Price, and Tim Hardaway. Again, the list is shorter, but is that because today’s point guards are better, or is it because the rule changes simply put them in better positions to succeed? I’d say it’s pretty inconclusive, but I don’t think there’s anybody that would argue that the rule changes have nothing to do with it.
The other rule change that went into effect before the 2005 season? Hard fouls at the rim. I’ve written about this about 827 times, but back in the 80s and early 90s, guys like Jordan and Dr. J and Dominique Wilkins would go to the rim and teams could knock them around with no real repercussions. The Bad Boy Pistons took it to the next level against Jordan in the ’89 and ’90 playoffs, pretty much hitting him with tire irons and two-by-fours every time he attacked the basket, and Pat Riley’s Knicks took THAT to the next level and did everything short of signing Chuck Norris to roundhouse kick Jordan whenever he entered the paint. During that time period, yes, Jordan, Dominique, and other players of that ilk were usually up near the top of the scoring leaders, but so were big men like Malone, Ewing, Barkley, Olajuwon, and Robinson. How about recently? The last time a power forward or center finished in the top 3 in scoring was 2004, when Kevin Garnett finished 3rd. The last time there were two pivot players in the top 5 was 2002, when Shaq was 2nd and Duncan was 5th. How about free throw attempts? Take Allen Iverson. From 1997 through 2004, Iverson only topped 10 free throw attempts per game once. From 2005 through 2008, he averaged 10+ three times in four years. So you’re saying that Iverson started attacking the basket MORE after his 30th birthday? Really? Kobe Bryant had never topped 8.7 FTA per game before the rule changes. In 2005, 2006, and 2007, he averaged 10+ every year. In 2006, he shot 100 more free throws than he ever had before the rule changes. With the stricter rules on contact at the rim, slashers ended up shooting more free throws. Also, with stricter rules on flagrant fouls, defenders at the rim would be afraid of drawing a flagrant foul, and as a result, they would be initiating less contact, and the offensive player would get an easy bucket.
What conclusions can we draw from these two rule changes? It’s a small man’s league. Helping along that conclusion: Groundbreaking change #2.
Groundbreaking Change #2: The Dearth of Great Centers
Here is the list of centers and other true pivot players that have entered the league since 1997, along with when they entered the league:
Tim Duncan (1997), Elton Brand (1998), Pau Gasol (2001), Yao Ming, Amar’e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer (2002), Chris Bosh, Chris Kaman, Kendrick Perkins (2003), Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Al Jefferson (2004), Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum (2005), Greg Oden, Al Horford, Marc Gasol (2007).
I limited the list to players that have made significant contributions to playoff teams or guys that have been considered top two or three players at their position in the league. The list doesn’t seem that long, does it? It’s less than 20 guys, and I’d argue that the only players that guarantee you 50 wins and contending for a title if they’re healthy are Duncan and Howard. Furthermore, I would argue that players like Brand, Stoudemire, Boozer, and Bosh don’t exactly belong because they aren’t true post players. They don’t have too many reliable post moves, and each of them is much more comfortable facing up from 15-17 feet than playing with their back to the basket.
And even all the back-to-the-basket players that have been coming into the league haven’t been that spectacular. Just look at the last six NBA Rookie of the Year winners:
2009: Derrick Rose
2008: Kevin Durant
2007: Brandon Roy
2006: Chris Paul
2005: Emeka Okafor
2004: LeBron James
Five of the last six Rookie of the Year winners have been perimeter players. In fact, when you look at all of the drafts since 1997, the same year we used above, you’ll find that there’s been a disproportionate amount of good perimeter players compared to post players. Actually, hold on, this needs to be its own Groundbreaking Change.
Groudbreaking Change #3: The Emergence of "Combo" or "Stretch Forwards"
For these purposes, I’m defining these players as either:
(A) Players that can be effective at either forward position
(B) Forward/Centers that are more comfortable stepping out and shooting
As with above, I’m limiting this list to players that have made contributions on playoff teams (with a few exceptions among the younger players), but also keep in mind that these players, for some reason or another, seem to have greater success on winning teams. Here’s the list since 1997, along with the year they were drafted:
Tim Thomas (1997), Antawn Jamison, Dirk Nowitzki, Al Harrington, Rashard Lewis, (1998), Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, James Posey, Andrei Kirilenko (1999), Troy Murphy, Mehmet Okur (2001), Tayshaun Prince (2002), LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Boris Diaw, Travis Outlaw (2003), Luol Deng, Josh Smith, Andres Nocioni (2004), Marvin Williams, Charlie Villanueva, Danny Granger (2005), Andrea Bargnani, LeMarcus Aldridge (2006), Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Yi Jianlian (2007), Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Danilo Gallinari (2008)
So, we have 17 true post players; meanwhile, we have 32 of this combo/stretch forward group. Now, considering the group’s definition is wider, I would expect to have more members, but nearly twice as many? If you really want to get into it, I would argue that the Brand/Boozer/Stoudemire/Bosh group has more in common with guys like Dirk, Odom, and Aldridge than they do with Duncan, Howard, and Gasol. If we were to swap their groups, that would leave us with 13 post players and 36 of this new hybrid forward. Nearly three times as many? You have to admit, this can’t be a coincidence.
Now, I know what the logical counter is. These are just players. What does this have anything to do with TEAM success? Well, let me give you a collection of teams from recent memory that have made significant noise during the regular season or playoffs that either (A) featured the smallball-friendly players from this last list, or (B) implemented similar strategies (lots of pick-and-roll, lots of threes):
2009 Lakers
The evidence: Their best lineup was Derek Fisher, Kobe, Trevor Ariza, Odom, and Gasol, taking advantage of Odom and Gasol’s flexibility, playing a combo forward at the 4 spot and a natural power forward at center
The result: 65 wins and an NBA title
2009 Magic
The evidence: Combined both schools of thought, using Howard in the post, and spreading the floor with smaller players, including Rashard Lewis, the prototypical combo/stretch forward. He played power forward, but did little rebounding or posting up. He spent most of his time around the 3-point line (attempting 7 threes per game and making 40% of them) and stretching the defense, giving Howard more room to operate and the guards more space to penetrate
The result: 59 wins and a trip to the NBA Finals
2009 Cavaliers
The evidence: Arguably their best lineup was Mo Williams, Boobie Gibson, Delonte West, LeBron, and Anderson Varejao, forcing a bigger player to defend LeBron 25 feet from the basket, and allowing the Cavs to spread the floor with three elite long-range shooters. On defense, they could rotate like maniacs and wouldn’t get killed on the boards because LeBron and Varejao were both very good rebounders. If they WERE getting killed on the boards, they could swap Varejao with Ilgauskas, and their offense would gain even more outside shooting.
The result: 66 wins and a trip to the conference finals
2008 Celtics
The evidence: It wasn’t their best, but one of their prominently featured lineups was Rondo, Ray Allen, Pierce, Posey, and either Garnett or Perkins (usually Garnett). There weren’t enough teams with elite post players to make Boston pay for playing Posey at the 4, and this was Boston’s go-to lineup when dealing with elite perimeter scorers. In the Finals, they attacked Kobe on defense with Pierce, and allowed Pierce to rest on defense by throwing Posey at Kobe. Posey is also one of the most underrated rebounders in the league, so they wouldn’t get killed on the boards either.
The result: 66 wins and an NBA title
2008 Lakers
The evidence: Pretty much the same as above, only with an even smaller lineup: Fisher, Vujacic, Kobe, Odom, and Gasol was their best lineup, although it did open up the opportunity to defend Kobe with longer players (like Boston did in the Finals). However, without being able to go small like this, they may not have been able to make the finals.
The result: 57 wins and a trip to the Finals
2007 Mavericks
The evidence: Their best lineup was the super-small Devin Harris, Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki group, which featured four reliable 3-point shooters, and Devin Harris, who could terrorize teams off the dribble. Dirk at center pulled the other team’s big man away from the rim, opening the lane for the slashers.
The result: 67 wins, upset in the 1st round by another smallball team (see below)
2007 Warriors
The evidence: Let me put it this way: under normal circumstances, they had two players on their entire roster that should be allowed to play center, Al Harrington and Andris Biendrins. They only had one player that averaged more than 6.5 rebounds per game. Their two most-used lineups featured forward combos of Jason Richardson and Stephen Jackson for one and Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes for the other. If you want to be really technical about it, three of those guys would be classified as guards. This wasn’t just smallball, it was smallball on crack.
The result: 42 wins and the biggest upset in NBA playoff history
2006 Phoenix Suns
The evidence: This might be the best example of successful smallball ever. They shot 40% on nearly 2100 threes attempted. To put that in context, the league average for 3-pointers attempted that year was 1310. So the Suns shot 60% more than the league average, yet still led the league in their shooting percentage on that historic number. To put THAT in context, the number of teams that have ever led the league in 3-pointers attempted and 3-point percentage can be counted on one hand. And none of those other teams approached Phoenix’s 2097 attempts in 2006. This was the season they were without Amar’e Stoudemire due to injury, and had to rely on the frontcourt trio of Shawn Marion, Boris Diaw, and Kurt Thomas. Two of their three most commonly used lineups feature Marion and Diaw at the 4 and 5 spots, and both of those guys traditionally would be considered small forwards.
The result: 54 wins and a trip to the conference finals
This list obviously doesn’t include every smallball team since the rule changes. There was the 2005 and 2007 Suns, the 2006 Mavs, pretty much all of the Pistons teams from the middle of the decade were effective going small, and even the Spurs did it well by playing Duncan at center and surrounding him with shooters. The fact of the matter is that over the last 6 years, teams have proven that not only can you contend by going small (see: Phoenix Suns), but also, if your team CAN’T go small, you’re going to have a tough time matching up against teams that do.
So, here’s the $64,000 question:
Now that we know these things, what does this tell us about THIS NBA season?
First: Keep your ears open in case you hear phrases like “I like (Team X) when they go small, it forces teams to adjust.” Teams that currently fit that bill: Cleveland, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, Phoenix, Houston, Kevin Durant’s Team
Second: Keep your ears open in case you hear phrases like “I like how (Team X) spaces the floor, they can really spread the floor with shooters.” Teams that currently fit that bill: All the ones listed above, plus the Lakers, Boston, Orlando, San Antonio
Third: Be wary of teams that can’t seem to match up when their opponents go small on them. Teams that currently fit that bill: the Lakers, Boston (at least until Garnett and Marquis Daniels get healthy), Orlando, San Antonio
Fourth: Be wary of teams that have trouble defending the pick-and-roll, or have trouble defending the three-point line. Teams that currently fit that bill: Atlanta, Orlando, Phoenix, Cleveland (with the pick-and-roll), the Lakers (with the pick-and-roll)
Ideally, you would want your team to appear on both of the first two lists and on neither of the last two. Unfortunately, the only team that does that is Houston, and with them, smallball can only get them so far. At least in my opinion, the team that is in the most trouble is Boston. They’ve lost two games to Atlanta, and they haven’t seen Cleveland since the first game of the season, when Cleveland clearly had a few kinks that hadn’t been worked out. If they aren’t completely healthy by the time they run into Cleveland at the end of February, they could be in trouble.
And one last thing: I know I’ve been saying this entire time that smallball is such an advantage. This is still true. However, this isn’t the only way to win. The Lakers have the best record in the league because they can toss out Bynum and Gasol at the same time. Size still matters. So, keep an ear out for phrases like “(Team X) has a lot of size, they can cause teams a lot of problems.” And if that Team X is one of the same ones that can go small, definitely keep both eyes on that team. As of right now, the only teams that can go big AND small effectively are Cleveland and the Lakers. In a related story, those are the two teams with the best record in each conference. Go figure.
I’ll leave you with my latest NBA Power Poll.
The Isiah Thomas Divison
30. New Jersey Nets
29. Detroit Pistons
28. Minnesota Timberwolves
27. Golden State Warriors
Bring Out The Gimp
26. Indiana Pacers
25. Philadelphia 76ers
24. Sacramento Kings
Shooting Themselves In The Foot (What, Too Soon?)
23. Washington Wizards
The Good Bad Teams
22. Los Angeles Clippers
21. Chicago Bulls
20. Milwaukee Bucks
Hold On, Are These Teams Actually Good?
19. New York Knicks
18. Memphis Grizzlies
17. Charlotte Bobcats
16. New Orleans Hornets
The Enigmatic Enigmas
15. Utah Jazz
14. Miami Heat
13. Toronto Raptors
The World’s Tallest Midgets
12. Kevin Durant’s Team
11. Houston Rockets
10. Portland Trail Blazers
9. Phoenix Suns
More Enigmatic Enigmas
8. Atlanta Hawks
7. San Antonio Spurs
Speed Bumps
6. Denver Nuggets
5. Orlando Magic
4. Boston Celtics
The Contenders
3. Dallas Mavericks
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The Favorite
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
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