NBA February Review
Tuesday, March 2, 2010Posted by Jeremy Conlin
I owe you guys a mea culpa.
No column since February 1st? What was I thinking?
My only excuse is that I’ve had two essays due in the last two weeks, and I can only sit in front of a computer and type for so many hours in a day until my eyes start to bleed.
But have no fear! I’ve been watching NBA games like they’re going out of style and keeping up with news via my new favorite NBA-related waste of time, the Hoopshype.com forums. It’s my new #1 time-waster, narrowly edging out FIFA 10 for Xbox 360, the Midnight Pool game on my phone, and watching crappy movies on cable (a few nights ago, Escape From New York and Con Air were on back-to-back. If you think I wasn’t up until 4:30 AM watching both, well, you don’t know me well enough).
Anyway, originally I was working on a column that consisted of me playing around with ESPN.com’s NBA Trade Machine, making up fake trades that could and should happen. Then the Amar’e/Cavs situation sprung up, and because it looked like the deal was going to happen at any minute, I scrapped the Trade Machine column and began pre-empting the Amar’e trade by working on a column before the trade actually happened. Well, the trade never ended up happening. I blame myself.
Then my schoolwork kicked in, and any hope I had of finishing a column went out the window. Well, now I’m back. I’m back to offer a review of what has turned out to be a secretly wacky month of February. Let’s take a look at a few of the subplots that developed over the last 4 weeks.
1. Kevin Durant Going Streaking
You realize that Kevin Durant had scored 25+ points in 29 straight games until his streak was snapped last Wednesday against the Spurs, right? I know it sounds impressive on its own, but let me add a little context. Here is the list of players under the age of 25 that have scored 25 or more points in 25 straight games. I call it the 25/25/25 club:
1. Michael Jordan (twice)
2. Kevin Durant
3. (empty)
4. (empty)
5. (empty)
Wow.
And it’s not like his team sucked over that stretch. The Team That Used To Be Called The Sonics Until Their Scumbag Owners Stole The Team And Moved It were 9-2 in February after their blowout win over the Raptors on Sunday night. I keep telling people, this is a sleeper team in the West. Dallas, Denver, and Utah will want no part of this team come playoff time, and if you’re MVP ballot looks anything other than this, get your head checked:
1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Carmelo Anthony
(Note to Laker fans: death threats can be sent to Buh Low Me at 123 Getoutamy Way, Poughkeepsie, New York)
One more Durant tid-bit. However, it didn’t happen in February. Sue me. In January, Durant averaged 32.1 points and 8.1 rebounds, and shot 52% from the floor, 53% from three, and 90% on free throws. Let’s make another list, shall we? Here’s the list of players in the history of the NBA that have posted a 32/8 with 50/50/90 for an entire month:
1. Kevin Durant, January 2010
That’s it. That’s the entire list. Holy mother of God.
2. Two Potentially Life-Alteringly Ironic Trades
At face value the deals don’t seem that funny. They are:
1. Cleveland trades Zydrunas Ilgauskas, a 2010 No. 1, and the rights to Emir Preldzic to Washington, who trades Antawn Jamison to Cleveland and Drew Gooden to the Los Angeles Clippers, who trades Al Thornton to Washington and Sebastian Telfair to Cleveland.
2. Houston trades Tracy McGrady to New York, and Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey to Sacramento, who trades Kevin Martin and Hilton Armstrong to Houston and Sergio Rodriguez to New York, who trades Larry Hughes to Sacramento, and Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill and draft considerations to Houston.
(For the record, yes, I did go out of my way to present those deals in a way that made them as confusing as humanly possible. Thank you, thank you, you’re too kind)
Anyway, why are the potentially life-alteringly ironic? Well, in the first one, Cleveland GM Danny Ferry just gave Clippers GM Mike Dunleavy enough cap space this coming summer to potentially steal LeBron away from the Cavs. Now, of course, this has to be taken with a grain of salt considering the GM in question is Mike Dunleavy. Chances are, he’ll sign Darko Milicic to a 5-year, $70 Million contract. But I digress.
The other trade is the one that really could become hysterical. We all know New York’s plan. Throw away the season, clear cap room, make a run at LeBron and/or Wade and/or Bosh and/or (fill in the blank). So, how do they do that? They trade for Tracy McGrady’s $22 Million expiring contract (I’m giggling). They make a trade with Houston (still giggling). In the trade, Houston ends up with Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, New Yorks 2012 1st-Round pick (only protected if New York lands the #1 pick), and the rights to swap 1st-round picks in 2011 (only protected if New York is in the top 5. By the way, I’m now riding a LOLercoaster). Why am I laughing, you ask? Because New York just gave Houston enough assets for them to potentially arrange a sign-and-trade for LeBron or Wade! Doesn’t anyone else find this hilarious?
First of all, if I’m LeBron, would I rather play with Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas, and eight other guys that could range anywhere from “halfway decent role players” to “absolute, unequivocal train-wrecks,” or would I rather play with Yao Ming, Trevor Ariza, Luis Scola, Aaron Brooks, and a bunch of other good role players. Here’s the trade Houston could offer Cleveland:
Kevin Martin, Shane Battier, Kyle Lowry, Jordan Hill, New York’s 2012 No. 1, Houston’s 2011 No. 1, Houston’s 2013 No.1, and Houston’s 2015 No. 1
Hell, Houston could even take on Boobie Gibson’s semi-ugly contract. It would work from every angle. LeBron would end up on a stacked team with a 6-year max deal (he can only get 5 in free agency) in a state with no income tax. Houston would end up with LeBron. Cleveland would end up with a roster of Mo Williams, Kevin Martin, Battier, Jamison, Varejao, Lowry, Hill, Parker, and West. They’d also have Shaq’s Bird rights, and they’d have FOUR future No. 1s to work with. I mean, if LeBron wakes up on July 1st and decides he wants out of Cleveland, wouldn’t that make a TON of sense? Just for kicks, here are two other sign-and-trade deals that could work:
1. Portland trades LeMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Jerryd Bayless, and three future No. 1s to Cleveland for LeBron and Boobie Gibson
2. Dallas trades Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Rocky Beaubois, $3 Million, and two future No. 1s to Cleveland for LeBron and Boobie Gibson
Explain to me why Cleveland would say no to any of those trades, why the LeBron camp would veto any of those trades, or why the team receiving LeBron would say no to any of those trades. Give me one reason. You can’t.
3. The Celtics Going Schizo
I’ve given up trying to figure out the Celtics. They open the season looking like worldbeaters, fall apart after Christmas like they always do, put things together again at the beginning of February, then blew games against Orlando and New Orleans, getting outscored by a combined 65-23 in the third quarters of those games in the process. Then, they got back on track on their west coast trip, scoring quality road wins against the Kobe-less Lakers and the Blazers, only to see them blow a double-digit at home to the Cavs, and then the ultimate shocker, losing at home to New Jersey, in a game that was much more one-sided than the score indicated.
Seriously, how does Boston lose, at home, to the Nets? How does it happen? Can anyone explain this to me?
The Celtics obviously don’t realize that they aren’t good enough to beat bad teams just by showing up on gameday. The only teams that can do that are Cleveland, Los Angeles, and MAYBE Dallas. Denver can’t, Atlanta can’t, Orland probably can’t, and Boston DEFINITELY can’t. They just aren’t talented enough. It’s the same problem that Detroit started getting in 2007 and 2008, when they lost to Cleveland in ’07 and nearly got upset in Round 1 against Philly in ’08. That’s the direction I see this Boston team going in. The odds of them being completely healthy AND being able to completely get over these over-confidence issues are about 25-1, so I’m not exactly expecting big things out of the Celtics this spring.
4. Old Spice’s New Ad Campain
Granted, this has absolutely nothing to do with the NBA, I just wanted to make sure everyone knew about the single greatest series of commercials since Bud Light’s “Real Men of Genius” ads. Please, I implore you to watch this commercial. Then watch this one. Then this one. Then this one. I defy you not to giggle 127 times. I dare you. You will fail.
5. Denver and Dallas Closing The Gap
For the first 3 months of the season, it was pretty clear that the Lakers were the class of the Western Conference, and everyone else was playing for 2nd place. And everyone was pretty much fine with that arrangement. Well, apparently Dallas and Denver weren’t fine with it.
Dallas swung for the fences at the trade deadline, picking up Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood without really giving up anyone of consequence. After dropping their first game after the trade on the road to Kevin Durant’s Team, Dallas has won eight straight, with wins over Phoenix, Orlando, the Lakers, Atlanta, secretly surging New Orleans team, and a road win in Charlotte. Yeah, pretty impressive.
Want more? Since the trade, Dirk has seemingly got his mojo back, bumping his stats up to a 29/8 with 50/38/97 percentages during the winning streak (yes, you read that correctly, Dirk’s shooting 97% from the line during this win streak). As for everyone else, Kidd and Terry have been getting wide-open shots left and right because of all the attention that Caron Butler attracts (significant) compared to all the attention that Josh Howard attracted (not significant). The trade added some much-needed toughness, one of the league’s best post defenders in Haywood, and Butler gives them a perimeter defender that won’t be afraid to mix it up with the Kobes of the world. Going even further, DeShaun Stevenson gives them a guy to match the overall insanity of Ron Artest and Denver’s entire roster, which can only be seen as a positive, even if he doesn’t play.
Denver, admittedly, hasn’t exactly been punching tickets to the finals in February, with ugly losses on the road against the Wizards, as well as falling by 20 to the Spurs at home, but they have just as many quality wins, beating both Cleveland and the Lakers on the road, as well as convincing wins over Dallas and Boston at home (PS, this might be the most impressive run-on sentence I’ve ever written. Thank you, thank you, please, the standing ovation is unnecessary).
When push comes to shove though, I think Denver is the only team that can really challenge Los Angeles in a seven-game series. To be honest, I’m not sure that Denver couldn’t beat the Lakers outright in the playoffs. I’ve written about this a number of times, but Denver matches up REALLY well with LA. And yes, I know that the Lakers just beat Denver on Sunday, but keep in mind that (a) they were at home, (b) Carmelo, Billups, JR Smith, and Kenyon Martin all struggled from the field, and (c) Carmelo fouled out with 2:30 to play on one of the cheapest offensive foul calls I’ve seen in a LONG time. The only things I definitively learned from that game are:
1. Kobe continues to struggle against Denver (38% FG, 14 Turnovers in 3 games)
2. Kenyon Martin and Nene continue to get under Gasol’s skin (45% shooting in 2 games, benched during crunchtime Sunday)
3. The Lakers will eventually get every call at home if Kobe complains enough
That’s it. That’s all I learned from that game (Again, Laker fans: death threats can be sent to Buh Low Me at 123 Getoutamy Way, Poughkeepsie, New York). If the Lakers and Nuggets meet in the Western Finals, Denver will probably be a +250 or maybe even +300 underdog. And I can promise you, I will be betting HEAVY on Denver.
6. LeBron
I’m not going to belabor the point, but let me just offer the following random, unconnected thoughts about LeBron’s 2009-2010 season
-First, it was announced Monday that LeBron won the NBA’s Eastern Conference Player of the Month for February, the 6th straight month he has won the award dating back to last season. For reference, no player in league history has ever won the award for every month of the season. LeBron is 4 for 4 right now.
-Second, the TNT Thursday Nuggets/Cavs game from two weeks ago might have been the best regular season game I’ve ever seen in my life. At the absolute worst, it was in the top 5. I can’t say anything to accurately describe the game that will either (a) do the game justice, or (b) not sound incredibly corny. So I won’t. Just know that it was one of the most exhilarating experiences that I’ve ever had as an NBA fan that didn’t involve the playoffs or Ron Artest. In the game, LeBron submitted one of the most amazing all-around performances I’ve ever witnessed with my own eyes. 43 points, 15 assists, 13 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 2 steals. He buried a 28-foot three in the final minute of regulation to tie the game and send it to overtime, then converted a breathtaking and-one with 20 seconds to play in overtime to tie the game that had to be seen to be believed. Carmelo for Denver didn’t disappoint either, submitting a scintillating 40/7/6 and nailing the game-winner with two seconds left in overtime. Simply put, this game exemplified every reason that I love the NBA. I don’t care if that sounds retarded. This game was [expletive deleted] theater. I don’t care if I just got censored. This game was [expletive deleted] theater. And yes, it probably deserved its own column.
-Third, and most importantly, LeBron is 25 years old right now, in his 7th season. Michael Jordan turned 27 during his 7th season, in 1991, the year he won his first title. If you like to compare career arcs, then the Jordan/LeBron comparison is one you have to look at (Note: I don’t have individual game stats for Jordan’s years in the playoffs, so I unfortunately can’t bang my point home with stats and must rely on my memory from illegally burned DVDs of the late-80s playoffs. I do, however, have LeBron’s stats, and will sprinkle them in when necessary):
The First Three Years: Building
Both Jordan and LeBron battled similar issues early in their careers, between poor coaching, an inability to fully click with teammates, to not enough talent around them. Both showed flashes of future greatness in the playoffs, from Jordan’s 63-point explosion at the Garden in ’86, to LeBron’s 45/7/6 in Game 5 against Washington in 2006. Here’s how their teams fared in the playoffs through their first three seasons:
Jordan, ’85-’87: Three playoff appearances, swept twice (’85, ’86), lost to Milwaukee 3-1 in 1987. Won one playoff game, zero playoff series.
LeBron, ’04-’06: One playoff appearance (2006), beats Washington 4-2, forced a Game 7 against a far superior Detroit team. Won seven playoff games, one playoff series.
The Fourth Year: The Mini-Leap
In ’88, Jordan made his mini-leap by beating a quietly loaded Cleveland (Brad Daugherty, Larry Nance, Mark Price, Ron Harper, Dell Curry), team in 5 games, before falling to Detroit in the 2nd round. In 10 games, Jordan averaged a 36/7/5 and shot 53% from the floor. This was the first playoff series that Jordan had won.
In ’07, LeBron made his mini-leap by sweeping an overmatched Washington team (without Gil Arenas due to injury), then effectively ending the Jason Kidd Era in New Jersey, outplaying Vince Carter in all 6 games. In the conference finals against a far superior Detroit team, LeBron threw the team on his back and single-handedly beat the Pistons, including his now famous 48-point outburst at the Palace in Game 5. In the Finals, the overwhelmed, overmatched Cavs fall to San Antonio.
Through four seasons, Jordan’s Bulls had won five playoff games and 1 playoff series. LeBron’s Cavs had won 19 playoff games and four playoff series.
Years Five and Six: The Wounds
In ’89, many people expected Jordan to finally put everything together and win a title. That spring, he added to his playoff resume with his game-winner over Craig Ehlo in Game 5 against Cleveland, as well as an underrated display of dominance against New York in the conference semifinals. However, the Bulls couldn’t get past Detroit, falling in 6 games to the eventual champions.
In 2008, coming off his appearance in the Finals, a lot of people expected LeBron to make another leap. However, after the Ray Allen and KG trades shifted power in the East to Boston, Cleveland took a backseat. Despite this, LeBron gamely fought off Washington in Round 1, and refused to go away against Boston in Round 2, forcing a Game 7 against the eventual champs with a 32/12/6 in Game 6, and posted an otherworldly 45/6/5 in Game 7 and nearly stole the series in Boston.
In 1990, again, people expected Jordan to finally get over the Detroit hump and claim his first title. In the first two rounds of the playoffs, Jordan channeled his inner Keyser Soze, utterly dominating Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the first two rounds, but again lost in heartbreaking fashion at the hands of Detroit in the conference finals.
In 2009, after winning his first MVP award, LeBron and the Cavs were the odds-on favorite to win the title. After channeling HIS inner Keyser Soze in first two rounds, sweeping Detroit and Atlanta, LeBron and the Cavs ran into the one team in the league they couldn’t match up with, Orlando, and fell in six games despite Herculean efforts from LeBron (49/8/6 in Game 1, 35 points and a GW 3-Pointer in Game 2, 44/12/7 in Game 4, 37/14/12 in Game 5).
...
The symmetry is pretty crazy, isn’t it? If anything, wouldn’t you say that LeBron’s teams have been more impressive in the playoffs? Yes, the teams Jordan faced were better than the teams LeBron faced, but at the same time, Jordan’s teams had more talent than LeBron’s teams, so it evens out. In years 4, 5, and 6, both Jordan and LeBron made two appearances in the conference finals, and in one other occasion fell in the 2nd round to the eventual conference champion winner, only LeBron also had a Finals appearance on his resume, a line that Jordan was missing. Through 6 years total, LeBron has won 36 playoff games and seven playoff series. Through his first 6 years, Jordan had won 24 playoff games and five playoff series. By any calculation, LeBron’s teams have been better in the playoffs than Jordan’s were through 1990.
So, where does this leave us? In 1991, Jordan won the MVP, his team went 61-21 in the regular season, and unleashed holy hell in the playoffs, going 15-2, including an 8-1 stretch against Detroit (the two-time defending champions) and Los Angeles (in their fourth Finals appearance in five years). As for LeBron, based on what we’ve seen so far this season, barring an unprecedented collapse, or Kevin Durant averaging a 40/9/4 for the entire month of March (and don’t rule that out, by the way), LeBron will win the MVP. In the playoffs, I wouldn’t expect him to be even remotely challenged until the conference finals, and if he can lead the Cavs past that, the Los Angeles Kobe’s will be waiting for them. And if the ’91 Bulls are any benchmark, that is a series that Cleveland can win.
I’ll leave you with the most recent NBA Power Poll, through Monday’s games:
Should I Come Up With a Division Lower Than The Isiah Thomas Division?
30. New Jersey Nets
The Isiah Thomas Division
29. Minnesota Timberwolves
28. New York Knicks
27. Indiana Pacers
26. Golden State Warriors
The Sultans of Suck
25. Washington Wizards
24. Sacramento Kings
23. Detroit Pistons
22. Philadelphia 76ers
21. Los Angeles Clippers
Falling Like a Lead Balloon
20. Miami Heat
19. Houston Rockets
18. Charlotte Bobcats
Waiting Patiently By The Phone
17. Memphis Grizzlies
16. New Orleans Hornets
Really? This Is A Playoff Team?
15. Milwaukee Bucks
The Enigmatic Enigmas
14. Portland Trail Blazers
13. San Antonio Spurs
The Noise-Makers
12. Toronto Raptors
11. Chicago Bulls
10. Phoenix Suns
The Bad Good Team
9. Boston Celtics
The Mega-Sleepers
8. Kevin Durant’s Team
7. Atlanta Hawks
6. Utah Jazz
The Pseudo-Contenders
5. Dallas Mavericks
4. Orlando Magic
3. Denver Nuggets
The Contender
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The Favorite
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
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