2011 Playoff Review
Saturday, May 28, 2011Posted by Jeremy Conlin
The NBA Finals start in three days.
However, this is not a preview. This is a retrospective. This is me, nearly at a loss for words, trying to make sense of what exactly has gone on in the last three weeks.
I keep asking myself questions.
Did the Lakers really get swept out of the playoffs, losing Game 4 by 36 points and being nearly outscored by three members of the Mavericks’ bench?
Has Nick Collison really emerged as the single most underrated player in basketball?
Has Dirk really emerged as the single most unguardable player in the league?
Did Dallas really just find themselves on the good end of two jaw-dropping 4th quarter collapses in back-to-back games?
Did Miami really just cap of their last six playoff wins with dominant fourth quarters and/or overtimes?
Did Chicago really just blow a 12-point lead, at home, in an elimination game, in under two minutes?
Did Miami really just beat Chicago four straight times, twice on the road?
Apparently, unbelievably, displicfathomably, the answers to these questions are yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes.
I can’t lie; I’m still looking for a winch to help me reel in my jaw, which dropped straight through the floor of my 12th-story apartment all the way to the lobby. The NBA World, for all intents and purposes, has been turned upside down. You’re telling me that Miami out-toughed Boston and Chicago? You’re telling me that LeBron has turned into a stone-cold killer in clutch time? You’re telling me that Kobe failed to take over a single game as his team crumbled around him? You’re telling me that the league MVP, Derrick Rose, completely collapsed in crunch time?
Since when does crap like this happen? It would be understandable if it were just one or two of these things that happened, but instead we got about fifteen straight “Wait a minute, did that REALLY just happen??” performances.
First was the collapse of the Lakers. I don’t want to dwell on it for too long, the reasons being, (1) other people have broken down the series and the resulting end of the Phil Jackson era far more intelligently and eloquently than I’m capable of, and (2) I want to get to the stuff about Dirk and LeBron. However, it absolutely, positively MUST be noted that the problems that the Lakers had in the regular season (defending quick guards, sloppy rotations, poor closeouts on shooters, defensive discipline in general) were the same exact problems that eventually killed them in the Playoffs. For the series, Dallas shot 49-106 (46%) from three, including 20-32 in the closeout game. Peja Stojakovic and Jason Terry by themselves combined to make as many threes (15) in Game 4 as the Lakers had in the entire series. Plain and simple, the Lakers quit. For whatever reason, they decided they didn’t feel like playing defense anymore.
To me, this was the nail in the coffin for the “Will Kobe Ever Reach Jordan?” argument. At this point, Kobe has too many negative lines on his resume that Jordan doesn’t. Jordan never got swept in a series where his team held home-court (like Kobe did in 2011). Jordan never checked out in the 2nd half of an elimination game (like Kobe did in Game 4 in 2011 against Dallas, Game 6 in 2008 against Boston, or Game 7 in 2006 against Phoenix). Jordan never lost by 20 or more in an elimination game (Kobe has now done it three times). Jordan never shot his team out of a series (like Kobe kinda did in 2003 against San Antonio and 2004 against Detroit). Jordan never blew a 24-point lead at home in the Finals (like Kobe did in Game 4 in 2008). Those things just never happened for Jordan.
I’m not trying to say that Kobe is solely to blame for LA’s loss in Round 2, far from it. LA’s sloppy defense is to blame (although Kobe’s inability to take over a single game didn’t exactly help). I’m just saying that it’s one more line on his resume that Jordan doesn’t have, and they’re starting to add up.
And then there’s Dirk.
I mean…
Holy [expletive deleted]ing [expletive deleted].
In his last 10 games (including Game 6 of the Portland series), Dirk averaged 29.5 points per game on 57% shooting from the floor, 52% shooting from three, and 96% from the line, good for a True Shooting Percentage of 69.7%. If you’re looking for context on that number, the LEAGUE LEADER most years is only around 63-65%. If you cut out Dirk’s sub-par Game 3 of the Western Finals, those numbers jump to 60.5/64.7/96.5 (73.1% True Shooting) and 30.8 points per game. Game 1 of the Western Finals especially jumps of the page. 12 for 15 from the floor, 24 free throws without a miss, 48 points.
There’s no other way to put it – Dirk has evolved in to an unguardable scoring machine. He’s scoring at unmatched efficiency levels, and doing it against a variety of defenders. Back in 2006 or 2007, you could guard him with the Stephen Jackson/Matt Barnes/Udonis Haslem types, guys that were a bit undersized, but had length to bother his shot and were active enough that Dirk couldn’t get to his spots.
Now? That strategy doesn’t work. Portland tried to guard him with Gerald Wallace for stretches in Round 1, and Dirk just took him down low and shot turnaround fallaways. In Round 2, when LA tried to guard him with Pau Gasol or Lamar Odom to try to slow him down with length, Dirk just went to the elbow, did about 20 shot fakes and jab-steps, got his man in the air, and either drew a foul or got by them. In the Western Finals, he dealt with Nick Collison (who we’ll get to) and Serge Ibaka, and (for the most part) did the same thing.
I was talking with a few friends about Dirk, and we were trying to figure out who exactly in the league is equipped to guard him. The list we came up with was Joakim Noah, Kevin Garnett, possibly LeBron (only in crunch time though, not for the entire game), and, in retrospect, possibly Nick Collison. And that was it. That was all we could come up with. That’s four guys in the entire league.
Nick Collison, while we’re on the subject, is now the most underrated defensive player in basketball. I don’t think there’s an argument to the contrary. Dirk has only had one legitimately bad game this postseason, Game 3 of the Western Finals, and it was because of Nick Collison. Dirk, despite being right-handed, wants to go to his left so that he can come back to his right hand. That’s his game, and it’s natural. If you’re right handed, it’s easier to get your shot off as you’re moving left (and dribbling with your left hand) than if you’re moving right. So what did Collison do? he angled his body to take away Dirk’s first dribble to the left, forced him to go right, and when Dirk put the ball on the floor, Collison would either poke the ball away or try to tie Dirk up for a jump ball. And this happened EVERY TIME Dirk was isolated at the top of the key or on the right wing (because then Collison could force Dirk towards the baseline and trap him there).
But it wasn’t just Dirk that Collison was able to throw for a loop. He did the exact same thing in Round 2 against Zach Randolph. In Randolph’s first seven games in the Playoffs (six in Round 1, and Game 1 of Round 2, before Collison was switched onto him nearly full-time), Randolph averaged 23.2 points per game and shot just under 51% from the floor. In Games 2 through 6 of Round 2, with Collison as the primary defender, that shooting percentage dropped to 37%.
In Game 3 of the Western Finals, due to Collison’s suffocating defense, Dirk ended up with seven turnovers and shot just 7-21 from the floor. Collison forced two jump balls and a slew of ugly shots.
But, like the offensive savant that he is, Dirk turned around and submitted a pantheon performance in Game 4. Instead of wasting time isolating at the top of the key or the right wing, where Collison was eating up all of his moves, he moved himself to the left wing, so that when Collison forced him right, he would end up driving straight down the lane. Dirk also got involved in a lot more screen-rolls, forcing Collison to hedge out on the screen, freeing up Dirk for position with more airspace. Dirk ended up with 40 points on 20 shots, including 14 of 15 from the charity stripe.
Like I said. Unguardable.
As for the East, I’m equally amazed.
If you had been listening to the media all season, you would think that if any of these Miami games were close in the last few minutes, the Heat might as well just pack up and go home, because they have no hope of winning. They can’t finish close games. It’s been well established, right?
Apparently not.
Here are their last six playoff wins:
Game 4 @ Boston: Trail 84-81 with 2:30 remaining. Neither team led by more than five points for the entire fourth quarter. Miami ties the game on a LeBron three with two minutes left and ends up winning in overtime.
Game 5 vs. Boston: Miami trail by six with four minutes remaining. They end the game on a 16-0 run.
Game 2 @ Chicago: Tied at 73 with 4:35 remaining. Miami finishes the game on a 12-2 run. Chicago scores 2 points in the last 7:15 of the game.
Game 3 vs. Chicago: Miami leads 78-74 with 6:39 remaining. Score nine straight points over next 90 seconds to extend lead to 13. Chicago never gets closer than seven points in final 5:39.
Game 4 vs. Chicago: Game tied with one minute remaining. LeBron defends Rose on final two possessions, forcing two misses and overtime. In overtime, Miami leads by one with 2:32 remaining, finish game on 12-5 run.
Game 5 @ Chicago: Miami trails by 12 with 3:12 remaining. Miami goes on 18-3 run to finish the game, including a 16-2 stretch to take the lead.
So…. Yeah… So much for that idea.
Even LeBron’s biggest detractors can’t keep parroting the “LeBron isn’t clutch” rhetoric. He’s hit more game-tying or game-clinching shots in the last two rounds than you can count on one hand, and has come close to outscoring the entire opposing team in a few fourth quarters (Celtics 13, LeBron 11 in Game 4; Celtics 14, LeBron 13 in Game 5; Bulls 10, LeBron 9 in Game 2).
(Quick aside – for the record, this rhetoric was always wrong to begin with. I mean, in his first playoff series ever (against Washington in 2006), he made two game-winning layups in Games 3 and 5 and dished to Damon Jones for the game-winning jumper in Game 6)
The fact of the matter is that LeBron has developed into a stone-cold killer. He’s not exactly the most popular guy in the league, but he’s certainly the best. I haven’t seen a player be able to dominate on both ends of the floor to the extent that LeBron has in these playoffs since Tim Duncan in the 2003 postseason.
There is no longer any glaring hole in LeBron’s game. Even his shooting. If I told you that LeBron shot a better percentage on two-point jump shots than Kobe, Carmelo, and Durant this season, would you believe me? You should, because it’s true. The only things left for LeBron to develop would be a three-point shot (and even that’s not totally necessary – Jordan shot under 33% from three for his career, Kobe is just under 34%, and LeBron is right in that range at 32.9%) and a reliable jump-hook from 6 feet or so. But even then, we’re nit-picking. Neither of those are exactly essential.
After LeBron’s clutch heroics in the Chicago series, a number of columnists started making comparisons to Jordan. At first glance, they seem a bit outrageous, but if you set aside team accomplishments and look strictly at the individual, their games aren’t that far off, especially if you’re comparing them over their first 8 seasons.
Jordan is certainly a better scorer and a better one-on-one defender, but those are the only two areas where he has a clear advantage. LeBron is a better rebounder, a better and more creative passer, and a more versatile defender (hell, he might go from guarding Derrick Rose in one series to guarding Dirk in the next. Wake me up when someone else does something like that). The only real difference in their careers is that Jordan was surrounded with other young players that could develop together, whereas LeBron had to join a new team to find championship-level teammates, and that doesn’t say anything about either one’s ability as a basketball player.
Is LeBron as good as Jordan? No. Not at this point in time. Jordan reached a level of team success only surpassed by Bill Russell. But does LeBron have the potential to be in that class one day? Of course he does. We’ve always known that to a certain extent. It just seems like we’re just starting to REALLY see it right now.
One last thing before I go. I haven’t seen anyone talk about this, and I feel that it’s too important to go unmentioned.
If you didn’t notice, Miami just established that they are better at playing Chicago’s style than Chicago is. Just reading that sentence seems weird, and in a way, downright frightening. Every other team in the league tries to win by imposing THEIR style of play and dictating the pace and tempo that THEY want to play at. The best example of this is probably the Memphis/San Antonio series in Round 1. San Antonio wants to play a rigid, disciplined game, only pushing the ball when it suits them. Memphis wants to play a chaotic style, attacking at every opportunity, and crashing the offensive boards with reckless abandon. Memphis won the style battle, and they won the series.
With Chicago/Miami, Miami basically announced “Go ahead, play your style at your tempo, we’ll play along, and we’ll do it better.” Miami is normally at their best in a wide-open game (a bit like they had in Round 1) where they can take advantage of their superior athleticism and deadliness in the open floor. Against Chicago, however, they grinded everything to nearly a standstill, just biding their time until they could unleash one of their patented 11-2 runs. They were almost toying with them. The last four minutes of Game 5 was essentially the Heat saying “Oh, you think you have this game wrapped up? Watch this!” They lulled Chicago to sleep and then dismantled them, limb-from-limb. It was spectacular to watch.
I’ve been saying this in various forms all season, but Miami has a higher ceiling than any team I’ve ever seen before. Their best game is better than anyone else’s best game. The fact that they just beat Chicago four straight times, twice on the road, playing a style that one would think suits the other team better than it suits them, seems to support that idea.
I don’t think we’ve seen Miami’s best game yet, only flashes (like the end of Game 5 against Chicago). But when we do, watch out.
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