The Blue-Chip Project
Wednesday, August 4, 2010Posted by Jeremy Conlin
Spurred by the idea of NFL.com’s Michael Lombardi, this, ladies and gentlemen, is Project Blue Chip 2011. The objective is to find out which teams have the most talent ON PAPER. The method is fairly simple. I tried to identify all of the NBA’s Blue Chip (Elite) players and Red Chip (Near-Elite) players. Lombardi has now been doing this project using NFL players for two years, so I thought I’d borrow the idea for the NBA.
The first thing I did was list the five positions and ranked the top 10-12 players at each spot. Then I listed five basic bench/supporting roles (backup PG, scoring guard, wing defender, spot-up shooter, and energy big man), and ranked the top 10-12 players at each of those roles. From there, I split each list into “Blue Chip” players (the top 3-5 at their respective position or role) and “Red Chip” players (the rest of the top 8-12 players). For each of the starter’s positions, Blue players received 12 points, and Red players received 8 points. For the bench/role player lists, Blue players received 6 points, and Red players received 3 points.
The lists of bench/supporting roles contain both bench players and starters who aren’t exactly breadwinners for their respective teams. For instance, Ron Artest and Shawn Marion are both starting Small Forwards. However, both are, at best, #5 offensive options for their teams. Same with Luc Mbah a Moute of Milwaukee. He’s their starting Power Forward, but he’s essentially a role player. Players like that, who aren’t top 10 or 12 players at their positions, but still impact games in other ways, were relegated to the bench/supporting role lists.
Furthermore, I limited each player to be on only one list, and placed them where they would receive the most points. For example: Joakim Noah is arguably the preeminent energy/defense big man in the league. As a Blue Chip Energy Big, he would receive 6 points. However, Noah is still a top-10 center in the league overall, which would classify him as a Red Chip Center, and would award him 8 points. Therefore, I placed him with the Centers. I did the same thing with players like Manu Ginobili (SG vs. Bench Guard), Luol Deng (SF vs. Wing Defender), and a few others.
Additionally, I created a category for Head Coaches. As Mike Brown proved for the second straight postseason, coaching actually does matter in the NBA. Accordingly, I listed the top 12 coaches and assigned 12 points for Blue coaches and 8 points for Red coaches.
The division between Blue Chip, Red Chip, and nothing was a discretionary decision on my part. Some positions (like Point Guard or Power Forward) are particularly deep in talent. Therefore, at each of those positions, there are 5 Blue Chip players and 7 Red Chip players. However, at positions that aren’t particularly strong from top to bottom (like Small Forward or Center), I listed fewer players. Small Forward, arguably the weakest position in terms of overall talent in the league from top to bottom, has just 3 Blue Chip players and 6 Red Chip players. These decisions were made based on how players performed this past season, as well as a prediction for how they will fare next season. For example, I placed John Wall as a Red Chip Point Guard, as most people pretty much expect that he will be able to immediately step in a be a top-10 or top-12 PG in the NBA.
From there, I organized each listed player and coach onto lists for their respective teams, and tallied the points. If you’re looking for a positional breakdown, you can find it HERE. Our leaders, the Los Angeles Lakers, came in with 62 points. Our lowest score came from the Toronto Raptors, with just six points. The league average was just under 28 points. Without further ado, the rankings:
1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS – 62 Points
Kobe Bryant (12), Pau Gasol (12), Phil Jackson (12), Andrew Bynum (8), Ron Artest (6), Lamar Odom (6), Matt Barnes (3), Derek Fisher (3)
Were you expecting anyone else? They’re one of two teams (along with Miami) that features three Blue Chip members, but they make up a lot of extra points with their bench and role players. I considered giving Odom a spot as a Red Chip Power Forward, but I already had 12 guys listed at PF (more than I really wanted to begin with), and I didn’t want to bump either Kevin Garnett or David Lee. Either way, LA finishes first.
2. DENVER – 51 Points
Carmelo Anthony (12), Chauncey Billups (8), Nene (8), George Karl (8), Ty Lawson (6), Arron Afflalo (3), Chris Andersen (3), J.R. Smith (3)
Notes: Surprisingly, I wasn’t surprised by Denver finishing this high. They really are loaded with talent, only the problem is that it’s hard to accurately compound the effect of having so many knuckleheads on one team. They haven’t been able to get all of their talent to mesh effectively, and they fell apart in last year’s playoffs with George Karl away from the bench with cancer. I personally think that Ty Lawson is going to have a monster season next year, and if somehow they can figure out how to harness all of their weapons, watch out. For all we know, Denver could still be the #2 team in the West.
3. KEVIN DURANT’S TEAM – 50 Points
Kevin Durant (12), Scotty Brooks (12), Russell Westbrook (8), Serge Ibaka (6), Thabo Sefolosha (6), James Harden (3), Eric Maynor (3)
Notes: Again, another team that makes up a ton of points with their bench. If you don’t think Serge Ibaka deserves a Blue Chip ranking, ask Lamar Odom how he liked going up against him in Round 1 of the Playoffs this past spring. I probably like him more than most, but I think all signs point to him becoming the next Marcus Camby.
4. SAN ANTONIO – 46 Points
Tim Duncan (12), Gregg Popovich (12), Manu Ginobili (8), Tony Parker (8), George Hill (6)
Notes: As long as they have the Duncan/Popovich/Ginobili/Parker group going, they’re going to finish high in these rankings. Duncan and Ginobili are starting to get a little long in the tooth, but they have George Hill and Tiago Splitter to save their legs for the stretch run.
5. CHICAGO – 45 Points
Derrick Rose (12), Carlos Boozer (8), Luol Deng (8), Joakim Noah (8), Kyle Korver (6), Taj Gibson (3)
5. MIAMI – 45 Points
Chris Bosh (12), LeBron James (12), Dwyane Wade (12), Mike Miller (6), Udonis Haslem (3)
Notes: Where Chicago and Miami really fall behind is their Head Coach. If we took away points for coaches, both of these teams would leapfrog San Antonio, Kevin Durant’s Team, and Denver, and would be sitting just five points behind Los Angeles. However, I can’t award them any points for coaches. Yes, Tom Thibodeau was the best defensive assistant in the league before taking the Chicago job, but we can say the same thing about Mike Brown from 2003-2005 before he was hired by Cleveland, and we saw how that ended up. As for Miami, Spolestra is a decent coach, I like him, but he’s not one of the twelve best. That’s just the way it is. If Pat Riley takes over as coach, that definitely bumps them 8 points (and Rick Adelman or Mike D’Antoni would get bumped), and the same if Thibodeau has more Scotty Brooks in him than Mike Brown, but for now, for the purposes of this exercise, both are awarded zero points.
7. MILWAUKEE – 43 Points
Andrew Bogut (12), Scott Skiles (12), Brandon Jennings (8), John Salmons (8), Luc Mbah a Moute (3)
Notes: This is one place where the experiment clearly isn’t an exact science. Andrew Bogut is worth 12 points, the same amount as LeBron, Wade, Durant, and Kobe. Sure, Bogut is a great player, but he’s not on the level of those guys. But here’s my counter: when there are NBA teams that will be starting Jermaine O’Neal, Darko Milicic, Erick Dampier, and Emeka Okafor (just to name four) at center, Bogut really does stand out nearly as much as those other guys. So there. Either way, it’s my column, so I can do what I want. If you don’t like it, that’s your problem.
8. PORTLAND – 42 Points
Brandon Roy (12), Nate McMillan (8), LeMarcus Aldridge (8), Marcus Camby (8), Nic Batum (6)
Notes: For the life of me, I really wanted to find a spot for Greg Oden. But considering the whole “played 82 games total in three seasons” thing, I decided against it. If for once in his life Oden can stay healthy next season (and having Camby around to keep his minutes down should help), Oden will be worth either six points (as a Blue Energy Big) or eight points (as a Red Center) next season, which would vault Portland above the previous four teams and put them tied for 3rd with Kevin Durant’s Team.
9. BOSTON – 39 Points
Rajon Rondo (12), Kevin Garnett (8), Paul Pierce (8), Doc Rivers (8), Nate Robinson (3)
Notes: It is a bit depressing to see only two of the “big three” making the cut, and both as Red Chip players. Some people might argue with Rondo being a Blue Chip Point Guard, but they have names for those types of people – they’re called morons. He’s the best defensive PG in the league and if there was a statistic for “Floor General-ship” (I just made that word up), Rondo and Steve Nash would be 1-2 in some order, followed shortly thereafter by Deron Williams. He’s a Blue Chip player. Don’t believe anyone who says otherwise.
10. UTAH – 38 Points
Deron Williams (12), Jerry Sloan (12), Al Jefferson (8), Paul Millsap (6)
Notes: I’m a little dubious as to how Jefferson is going to fit into Jerry Sloan’s flex offense. Boozer and Malone, the two signature forwards for that offense, were face-up players that set hard screens and played the pick-and-roll. Jefferson is more of an iso, back to the basket player, he’s never been good playing pick-and-roll, and he’s not a smart passer. Utah’s best bet would be to have Millsap move into Boozer’s role and work new elements into the offense to get Jefferson the ball on the block, although that is rather counter-productive to what they normally try to do, which is a lot of movement, downscreens, and cuts. So it’ll be interesting to see what they do.
11. ORLANDO – 34 Points
Dwight Howard (12), Stan Van Gundy (8), Jameer Nelson (8), Marcin Gortat (3), J.J. Redick (3)
Notes: This is a pretty dopey ranking simply because Rashard Lewis should be worth points somewhere because of all the matchup problems he creates, only he’s really not a top-12 Power Forward and he didn’t fit into any of the other categories. So really, Orlando should have 6-8 more points than this, which would vault them into the top 10 above Utah and Boston.
12. MEMPHIS – 32 Points
Marc Gasol (8), Rudy Gay (8), O.J. Mayo (8), Zach Randolph (8)
Notes: This team is a little bit like Denver-light. They have a plethora of good pieces, only they don’t totally fit and they seem like they have chemistry issues. Considering the contracts that Joe Johnson, Amar’e Stoudemire, and David Lee got, Rudy Gay for $82 Million isn’t that bad, although it is amazing to think that we’ve come so far to think that if a contract isn’t exceedingly horrific, then it’s an okay contract. Amazing.
13. HOUSTON – 31 Points
Kevin Martin (8), Rick Adelman (8), Shane Battier (6), Kyle Lowry (6), Trevor Ariza (3)
Notes: Another kinda-sorta dopey ranking because if Yao Ming really is back and 100% healthy, he’s worth 12 points as a Blue Chip center. However, considering he’s missed a total of 173 games over the last 5 years, I’m a little hesitant.
14. ATLANTA – 30 Points
Al Horford (8), Joe Johnson (8), Josh Smith (8), Jamal Crawford (6)
Notes: So far, Al Horford has not signed any contract extension, which means he could potentially be a restricted free agent next summer. For his sake I hope he finds a new team, preferably one that doesn’t make him play out of position for now four straight years.
15. DALLAS – 24 Points
Dirk Nowitzki (12), Jason Terry (6), Roddy Beaubois (3), Shawn Marion (3)
Notes: This one really surprised me. Although not as much as it probably should have, because Dallas is a classic “the whole is greater than the sum of the parts” teams, kinda like Cleveland was when LeBron was around or Minnesota during the Garnett years. As it is right now though, they’re still one scorer short unless Roddy Beaubois can make a leap to a poor man’s Monta Ellis.
15. CHARLOTTE – 24 Points
Stephen Jackson (8), Gerald Wallace (8), Larry Brown (8)
Notes: So far this offseason they’ve lost Ray Felton for nothing and swapped Tyson Chandler for Erick Dampier’s Waiveable Contract. And this was a team that barely made the playoffs last year and got beaten handily by Orlando. I’m not buying too much stock into Charlotte’s playoff chances this year.
15. GOLDEN STATE – 24 Points
Stephen Curry (8), Monta Ellis (8), David Lee (8)
Notes: The good news – the Dubs finally have a new owner and they found a reliable pick-and-roll partner for Curry and Ellis. The bad news – they’re still being coached by The Acerbic Curmudgeon, otherwise known as The Artist Formerly Known as Don Nelson. I have a feeling their #1 pick this year, Ekpe Udoh, is going to flop big time (and he’s injured already and won’t play until Christmas), so don’t expect them to be any good for the next two-three years once they’ve traded Monta Ellis and re-built through the draft.
15. PHOENIX – 24 Points
Steve Nash (12), Goran Dragic (6), Jared Dudley (3), Channing Frye (3)
Notes: This might sound crazy, but I think it’s exceedingly possible that Phoenix could have a top-10 defense in the league next season. Replacing Amar’e Stoudemire with a cadaver would make them better defensively, but now that Phoenix is throwing Hakim Warrick into the mix, a long, active, athletic forward that can rebound and protect the rim, Phoenix will have respective frontcourt defense for the first time in the last 15 years. Just having someone that consistently gives a crap on the defensive end immediately makes them leaps and bounds better. The only question will be where their scoring comes from.
19. NEW YORK – 23 Points
Amar’e Stoudemire (12), Mike D’Antoni (8), Anthony Randolph (3)
Notes: Anthony Randolph playing for Mike D’Antoni? Sign me up.
20. NEW JERSEY – 18 Points
Brook Lopez (12), Anthony Morrow (6)
Notes: My vote for the sneakiest good signing of the summer – Anthony Morrow for 3 years, $12 Million. Kyle Korver got 3 years, $15 Million. J.J. Redick got 3 years, $19 Million. Mike Miller got 5 years, $25 Million. And Jersey got Morrow, a career 46% shooter from 3, for less than the mid-level? That’s a steal in my book.
20. NEW ORLEANS – 18 Points
Chris Paul (12), Darren Collison (6)
Notes: If we had done this list solely based on the 2008 season, New Orleans would have gotten points for David West (8), Tyson Chandler (8), Peja Stojakovic (6), Jannero Pargo (6), and Byron Scott (8), and would have 42 points and tied with Portland. 3 years later, they don’t even have half that. What a shame.
22. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS – 16 Points
Eric Gordon (8), Chris Kaman (8)
Notes: Blake Griffin, in all likelihood, will be on the list next season, but for some reason I’ve never been a fan of rookies that miss an entire season with a weird knee injury before they even play an NBA game. Call me crazy, but the track record for this isn’t good. For now the Clips are stuck at 16.
23. PHILADELPHIA – 14 Points
Andre Iguodala (8), Mareese Speights (3), Lou Williams (3)
Notes: Evan Turner was the one other rookie that I considered giving Red Chip value to, but I’m not sure exactly what position he’s going to play. If he plays Shooting Guard, he probably doesn’t deserve the 8 points. As a rookie I can’t see him being any better than Eric Gordon, Stephen Jackson, or John Salmons will be next year. If he plays Small Forward, however, you might be able to talk me into giving him Red status and the 8 points, but common sense would tell me that Turner will play the 2 and Iguodala will play the 3. In that case, Philly is stuck on 14 points for now.
24. INDIANA – 11 Points
Danny Granger (8), Brandon Rush (3)
Notes: I’ve gone back and forth for the last two months on the “Indiana should trade Danny Granger” idea. On one hand, he probably could use a change of scenery, he’d be much better off playing with another All-Star, and the franchise really isn’t going anywhere with him unless they somehow land a real Alpha Dog through the draft. On the other hand, he’s an All-Star caliber player that’s locked into a VERY good contract ($50 Million over the next 4 years), and it’s dumb to trade someone of his talent unless he’s either wildly overpaid or about to flee in free agency. Ultimately though, if Granger is your best player you’re probably losing 50 games or close to it, so I’d say trade him if you can get anywhere close to fair value for him.
24. MINNESOTA – 11 Points
Kevin Love (8), Corey Brewer (3)
Notes: It’s been a big summer for Minnesota. First David Kahn re-signed Darko Milicic to a $20 Million contract, then compared him to Chris Webber and Vlade Divac on NBA TV while sitting right next to Chris Webber. Then they traded two 2nd-Round picks for Michael Beasley, giving them a major logjam in the frontcourt between Love, Beasley, Darko, and Al Jefferson. Then they traded Al Jefferson, only their best player, to Utah for a huge trade exception, Kosta Koufas, and two crappy picks. The trade exception would be nice, only this now makes them the third team, along with Cleveland and Toronto, that have $14 Million or bigger trade exceptions. And -- this is a shocker; I hope everyone is sitting down -- teams don’t normally trade $14 Million players for nothing mid-season. It’s basically worthless unless they’re absorbing a contract like Gilbert Arenas. Really, David Kahn has done everything besides holding a press conference and announcing “I have literally no idea what I’m doing. I have no plan whatsoever.” By the way, Kevin Love and Corey Brewer are kinda good.
24. WASHINGTON – 11 Points
John Wall (8), Kirk Hinrich (3)
Notes: If JaVale McGee somehow makes the US National Team for the World Championships in Turkey, do I have to give him points? Can I get a ruling on this?
27. CLEVELAND – 9 Points
Anderson Varejao (6), Anthony Parker (3)
Notes: I really feel bad for Anderson Varejao, because he truly is a great player, but all the things he contributes generally get wasted on crappy teams. Considering Cleveland is now a 25-win team, his contract is one that they don’t want any part of, so hopefully he’ll get traded to a contender sometime soon. I put Parker here simply because he shot the hell out of the ball, especially early last season. We can’t expect him to keep shooting at that clip now that LeBron isn’t getting him open looks, but I put him in there just for old time’s sake.
27. DETROIT – 9 Points
Will Bynum (3), Ben Gordon (3), Tayshaun Prince (3)
Notes: To be completely honest, I spent almost an hour trying to figure out if Will Bynum stood out so much every time I watched Detroit because he was actually a really good point guard, or if it was because Rodney Stuckey is just so terrible at running an offense that even Tyronn Lue would look like an All-Star on this Detroit team.
29. SACRAMENTO – 8 Points
Tyreke Evans (8)
Notes: This isn’t as bad as it seems at first glance, because Evans is the type of player that can single-handedly win you 35-40 games if he’s healthy and playing at a high level. With Cousins on board this is probably a .500 Sacramento team, although it isn’t reflected here. Expect Tyreke to be a Blue player this time next year.
30. TORONTO – 6 Points
Leandro Barbosa (3), Jarrett Jack (3)
Notes: Well, at least they got two crappy picks and a $15 Million Trade Exception from Miami.
So there you have it – ranked from first to worst, how the teams stack up against each other in terms of talent, on paper. What does this mean? Well, I don’t know. I have no idea. That’s my expert opinion.
« Back to Articles
Related Articles
More By This Author
All Things Sports
MLB
NFL
NBA
COLLEGE BB
|
NASCAR
COLLEGE FB
NHL
|
Contributors
Join Our Newsletter
| First Name: |
Last Name: |
| Email: |
|
Upcoming Games
There are no games currently scheduled. Please check back soon!
