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//  Friday, September 10, 2010

My Two Cents: NFL Edition

Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Posted by James Oldham

This is the premier of a new feature. And as long as my boss lets me (you hear that Dan?), I'm going to do a few of these for different sports leagues. It's a simple concept really. I'm going to write about random thoughts, ramblings, and situations that either happened or could have happened, and most importantly, that matter to me.

I know what your thinking. Why should you care? Dont' worry, I'm not hurt. After all, it's a really good question. And my answer may seem complicated, but it also has the benefit of being the right answer. My ultimate goal is to ensure that your excited about being a sports fan. Whether that means writing a touching, heart-felt story about a team coming together in the face of tragedy, or a player that transcends greatness into a whole new echelon, my objective remains the same. My goal is to excite you, remind you of why your a sports fan in the first place. After all, you wouldn't have gotten this far into the column without being a sports fan. (Unless your family. Or a close friend. Thanks gang.) In order to ensure that your still reading this column to the end, I need to intrigue and entertain you. That's true. But I also need to discuss what your thinking, feeling, and saying to your friends. I may feel the same way you do, I may not. I may bring up angles you never considered. I will make the occasional bold statement/prediction. I will use knowledge obtained from being a night-owl and devouring way too many sports stories. And I will do my best to make it fun.

You may agree with my feelings, you may not. But either way, you will get excited. You may either curse my stupidity, or embrace my optimistic views about certain players and teams. With luck, you'll think about these ideas even after you've finished reading this, if only for a minute. Because if you agree, disagree, love my viewpoint, or choose to hate it, you will be thinking about sports. You might even get excited about a topic or two. And in that instance, my job will be complete. (At least for today.)

Lastly, what I care about, and what matters to me, is what you talk about with your friends in the bar after work. It's what your discussing after late-night on-line Madden sessions. It's the conversation you have with a distant family member, whether by blood or by marriage, because you have nothing else to talk about. That's what your about to read. And you can comment on how you feel. Let me know when I'm absolutely insane, and that the four red-bulls I drank today are causing me to enter Joker-esque madness. Or maybe you agree with something I said, and want to back me up. Either way, it should be exciting.

Without further ado, here...we...go!

  • Chris Johnson is the best running back in the NFL. Period. He is slowly inching towards Barry Sanders status. Barry Sanders was the type of player who could carry an NFL team on his shoulders, using his mastery of the position to swing a game in the Lions favor.  He was super fast and elusive, once rushing for over 100 yards in 14 straight games. There was no other running back who could hit the hole and make guys miss the way Sanders could. Now I know that Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature, and he's by the far the second best back in the league. (By the way, Steven Jackson creeps into the conversation when he's healthy. Which is never.) But Johnson is the better player. Last season, All-Day rushed for 1,760 yards. Johnson in his rookie year? 1,228. But look closer. AP received 363 carries, for an avg. of 4.8 yards-per-carry. Johnson, who missed a game, received only 251 attempts, for a 4.9 yard-per-carry avg. In his rookie year! That takes us to this season. Peterson has rushed for 1,235 yards on 281 attempts. The yards-per-carry avg. is 4.4. I know he has some offensive line issues, so all things considered being fourth in yardage ain't bad. That's why he's number two. Chris Johnson, on just twenty more attempts, has rushed for 1,730 yards. That's a 5.7 yard-per-carry avg. That's ridiculously high. By comparison, Terrell Davis carried the rock 392 times to break 2,000 yards, a 5.1 avg. 
  • Now, consider that the Titans started the season 0-6. When a team starts 0-6, you'd imagine that they're passing a ton, because you don't win games by running the ball when your behind. After those six games, Johnson still managed 596 yards on 95 carries. Guess what? That's a 6.2 yard-per-carry avg. It was even higher when they were losing! So you might think he's fallen off, but as his stats show, Johnson hasn't had a game since week 6 in which he rushed for less than one hundred yards each game. That stretch is third all time. Do you know who's first? You guessed it, Barry Sanders. Enter Vince Young into the starting line-up, and Chris Johnson activated beast mode. He's taken the Titans and lifted them onto his shoulders, keeping them in the convoluted AFC play-off hunt. Johnson has even become the better fantasy back. (I'm calling it now, he's the consensus #1 pick next year.) Peterson is a rare athlete who posses a skill set similar to Gale Sayers, a truly remarkable open-field player. He's fast, strong, shifty, and explosive. But Chris Johnson is the best running back in the league.
  • Let's say your the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. Chad Pennington is most likely finished in Miami. By the way, let's say Pennington never had horrendous injuries to his right shoulder and left hand. Couldn't he have been great? Like, Drew Brees or Phillip Rivers great? He was tremendous in his first full year under center, with a 104.2 QB rating. It was the highest in franchise history. He's always been tremendously accurate. If he had stayed healthy, and still had the ability to throw the ball more than 15 yards down-field, wouldn't he have only gotten better? And if that was the case, the future of the Dolphins, Jets, and Saints would have changed dramatically. Imagine the Jets having a franchise quarterback in Pennington, Brees leaving the Chargers for the Dolphins in 2006, and God knows who following Aaron Brooks to lead the Katrina ravaged Saints? Would that franchise still exist?
  • Anyway, back to my original point. With Pennington gone, you have three options. Either start Chad Henne, start Pat White, or acquire a new QB in the off-season. I can't imagine the Dolphins draft a new QB, because White and Henne are both young, and promising. So should you start Henne and continue to use the wild-cat sporadically? You certainly could. And the Dolphins are so good running the ball with that offensive line blocking for Brown and Williams, it might even lead to success. But your not winning a super bowl that way. The Dolphins are at their best when their grinding the ball and controlling the game clock. The Dolphins are innovators, adding wrinkles to the wild-cat and continuing to use it successfully. So here's what I think they should do. Start Pat White, and go full-time wild-cat!
  • Do you have any idea how much fun that would be to watch? And from what I've seen and heard through draft combines and scouting reports, Mr. White can throw a pretty decent ball. All of a sudden, the Dolphins would become the NFL equivalent to the 2002 Sacramento Kings. Pat White would be Jason Williams, Ronnie Brown would be Chris Webber, you get the picture. Everyone would watch Dolphins games, and root for them so long as they didn't interfere with their favorite teams chances of winning it all. White could be used to throw, run, or even catch. He could also go under center and play the QB position as it's meant to be played. But if you use the wild-cat the majority of the time, defenses would be absolutely clueless. You'd never know what was going to happen. Reverses, reverses that lead to throws by White or Brown, options, the works. How much fun would that be to watch? They'd still be doing what they do best, grinding it out and running behind that tremendous offensive line. Come on Tony Sparano, come on Bill Parcells. Wild-cat in 2010!
  • I have only one thing to say about Jim Mora's asinine fake field-goal attempt. He should have been fired at half-time.
  • Does anyone out there doubt that Joshua Cribbs is the best player on the Cleveland Browns roster? He's certainly the most dangerous. Speaking of which, Brady Quinn is out for the last two weeks of the season. How funny would it be if Derek Anderson suddenly lights up the Raiders and Jaguars in their last two games? (And it really could happen.) Would Browns fans start to believe in Anderson again? Would we see the same dreadful QB controversy in the off-season, with Browns fans questioning whether to go with future franchise star Quinn (for the fourth time) or the I once won 10 games in a season and even God isn't sure how Anderson? Would Holmgren even keep them both in town? Stay tuned, this could be pretty entertaining.
  • By the way, is Jerome Harrison for real? 283 yards? Sure it came against the Chiefs, but that was incredible. Maybe Cleveland found their future franchise running back. There's hope for Brown's fans just yet.....
  • I know it's been a week, but I'm still sad about Chris Henry's passing, and I'm a die-hard Steelers fan. I once joked to my buddy Bruce, who's a tried and true Bengals fan, that Chris Henry's slow-motion one-handed catches on HBO's Hard Knocks made me want to draft Henry in our fantasy league. The guy was immensely talented, even if he had his share of personal demons. Now we'll never know if he could channel those talents into a full NFL season. Another tragedy for the Bengals this season. Here's hoping it's the last.
  • William Gay, your effing terrible. I'd rather the Steelers start Deshea Townsend. At least he can tackle, despite never being anything more than an average corner-back. (Don't believe me? Check his Madden ratings. Off the top of my head, I've never seen anyone who's overall rating hovered between 78-84 his entire video game career like Townsend's.) I wish we never let Bryant McFadden leave for Arizona. Getting to re-live you being run over by Adrian Peterson in every Vikings highlight video makes me want to drink myself into a coma. You can't tackle, and I could probably burn you for 100 yards receiving. How did this get past the Steelers coaching staff, renowned for recognizing defensive talent? I'm scratching my head in disbelief.
  • Of all the teams battling for the AFC wild-card playoff spots, the Steelers and the Ravens will sneak in. The Jets are losing to the Colts (Manning is too competitive to let an opportunity like this pass, he's going to play.), the Broncos will lose to the Eagles, the Steelers will win out by beating the Ravens and Dolphins, the Jaguars will lose to the Pats, and Pittsburgh along with Baltimore will finish the season 9-7. Since they both own tie-breakers over the soon to be 9-7 Titans, they will both make the playoffs. Not that any of it matters, the Charger are headed to the Super Bowl. They've proven they can beat the Bengals, and they've owned the Colts in the postseason lately, knocking them out of the playoffs the last two years. The Steelers will be dangerous, but the Chargers will finally appear in the Super Bowl.
  • The Vikings are starting to lose their luster. Their offensive line is dealing with injuries and inefficiency. Favre has started to wear down over the last few seasons as the games wore on, and he's had to throw more this season than anyone felt he would. He's only 62 attempts off his pace last season, and he fell apart to end 2008. There's bickering between Favre and his head coach, most likely because Favre was treated like a celebrity by Brad Childress when he signed. For example, meeting Favre at the airport when his plane landed in Minnesota during the pre-season. Donald Trump once raved about a contestant on The Apprentice doing the same thing. The difference? The contestant wanted to work FOR Trump! Childress is supposed to be Favre's boss. Is there any wonder why Favre feels like he should have control? Jonathan Stewart just became the first back to rush for over 100 yards on the Vikings in 36 games. Losing E.J. Henderson probably helped his cause. The cracks in the Vikings once impenetrable armor are starting to show. This team isn't going to the Super Bowl.
  • The New Orleans Saints should face the Chargers, but danger looms. The Cardinals have the offensive talent to match Drew's boys, and could win in an old fashioned shoot-out. Also, don't sleep on the Philadelphia Eagles. Their secondary, led by all-pro corner Asante Samuel, could make life difficult for Drew Brees. Add to that, they posses the second most dangerous player in the league in Desean Jackson. He does what Ted Ginn Jr., Reggie Bush, and Percy Harvin were able to do in the collegiate ranks, only he's doing it against the biggest and the fastest football players in the world. It's one thing to make play after play in college, it's entirely different to do it in the National Football League. I'm predicting the New Orleans Saints play the San Diego Chargers in Miami for Super Bowl XLIV, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Chargers playing the Eagles either.

That's it for this edition. As always, thanks for reading!

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