Joe Dumars Is Overrated
Sunday, July 19, 2009Posted by Jeremy Conlin
I was talking with some people the other day about who we thought were some of the better executives around the NBA. Naturally, there were a few names that pretty much everyone agreed with. Like RC Buford, from San Antonio, and how he managed to keep his team relevant for 10 years while putting up with an owner that is a little bit of a penny pincher. Or Daryl Morey, who has revolutionized basketball statistics in Houston. Or Kevin Pritchard, who finally broke Portland clear of the Jail Blazers era and built a strong team around defense, chemistry, and good-guymanship.
Now, there was one in particular that really got my goat. I disagreed vehemently, and even went so far as to say that he was one of the 5-worst GMs in the league. Who, you ask?
Joe Dumars.
Now, I understand your reaction. This is the same guy that traded Grant Hill’s mangled ankles for Ben Wallace, stole Rasheed Wallace away from Atlanta for 8 cents on the dollar, and drafted Tayshaun Prince late in the first round and turned him into a solid 4th wheel. But want to know the dirty little secret about all of those transactions?
They all happened over 5 years ago.
With my NBA GMs, I take the viewpoint of “what have you done for me lately?” And, since Detroit’s championship in 2004, their front office seemingly has done everything possible to murder basketball in the motor city. Let’s take a look at a few of the indefensible (that’s right, I said it) moves of Joe Dumars’ career.
2003 NBA Draft: Selects Darko Milicic at No. 2 over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade
Let me remind you all. This was considered a terrible pick AT THE TIME. Carmelo Anthony had just come off probably the most outstanding individual college season since Patrick Ewing in 1985, single-handedly led his team to the national title, beating both Texas and Kansas, who were probably the two best teams in the country entering the tournament, and averaged 26 points and 12 rebounds in the final four. Then, once he entered the league, he took off into the realm of Superstar, and has since averaged at least 20 points and 5 rebounds every year he’s been in the league. Beyond that, as I’ve written multiple times, he’s a rare forward that can score from anywhere, and he’s one guy that you absolutely KNOW is going to come through in a big game. Can you say that about any member of the Pistons from ’03-’08? Because I can’t. For all the people who call Billups “Mr. Big Shot,” there are people like me who will point out a suspiciously high amount of no-shows in big games. Go look up his playoff game logs sometimes. He disappears way too much. Carmelo doesn’t do that. Besides, down the stretch this season and in this year’s playoffs, we saw just how well Carmelo and Chauncey’s games mesh. If Detroit had taken Carmelo instead of Darko in the 2003 draft, that would have easily swung the 2005 finals against San Antonio, who would have no answer for Carmelo’s offensive versatility (and remember, Detroit almost won that series straight-up without him), and also could have swung the 2006 Miami series and the 2007 Cleveland series, as he would have given Detroit a guy that could match baskets with Wade or LeBron. In 2008 against Boston, the Celtics would still have two guys that would defend him well (Pierce and Posey), but I’m not ruling out that they could win in 2008 either. That means that if Dumars had taken Carmelo instead of Darko in the 2003 draft, we’d be setting the over/under on Detroit’s titles this decade at 3.5, or maybe even 4.5. And I can make serious arguments for the over on both. It’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that Detroit could have entered the 2008-2009 season as the 5-TIME DEFENDING CHAMPIONS. Taking Darko in 2003 cost Detroit two NBA championships, minimum.
November 2008: Signed Richard Hamilton to a 3-year, $38 Million contract extension; Trades Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess to Denver for Allen Iverson
You guys realize that Richard Hamilton still has 4 years and just under $50 Million left on his contract, right? This is the same Richard Hamilton that stands at 6-7 and has never averaged 4 rebounds per game in his entire career. This is the same Richard Hamilton that hasn’t been able to put the ball on the floor since Lance Bass came out of the closet. This is the same Richard Hamilton that wouldn’t be able to create open shots for others even in a 6th-grade AAU game. And this extension came after the 2008 season, in which Hamilton posted his lowest scoring average since Clinton was still in office (no, seriously), his defense slipped noticeably, and he was coming off a postseason in which he had twice as many turnovers (48) and fouls (48) as he did three-point attempts (26). I’m not sure what about this screams “12-million per year extension.”
Now, if you combine the Hamilton extension with the Iverson trade, things go from bad to worse. The Billups trade was a straight salary dump that masqueraded as a “much needed roster shake-up.” The one and only reason why they traded Billups was because of his 3 years and $39 Million left on his contract. Well, if you’re trying to dump salary for the next few offseasons (Iverson’s contract expired after last season), why would you turn around and sign Hamilton to that extension. And when I say, turned around, I mean that. Both of these transactions happened on THE EXACT SAME DAY. Now, just for a second, let’s pretend I’m Joe Dumars on November 3rd, 2008.
Assuming I make the Iverson trade (which was dumb to begin with, but whatever), I am now left with $37 Million on the books for the 2009-2010 season, and just over $16 Million for the 2010-2011 season. Call me crazy, but here’s my plan:
I’m going to gauge over the next month and a half how well my new backcourt plays together. I now have three shooting guards, two of which (Iverson and Stuckey) like to pretend that they’re point guards, which they most certainly aren’t. Hamilton is most effective running around line a pinball, curling around double-screens, and then knocking down wide-open 18-footers. Now, in order to do this, common sense indicates that it would help to have a point guard on your roster. Detroit didn’t. Thus, in the month of November, Hamilton averaged just 16 points on 40% shooting overall, accompanied by 27% shooting from 3.
What does that tell me? It tells me that I shouldn’t give Hamilton a $38 Million extension. It tells me that I should wait it out for awhile, to see if the Hamilton/Stuckey combo ever works out. And even if it does, why am I giving Hamilton an extension? I’m trying to save money for the summer of 2010. Hamilton becomes a free agent that summer. With every team tripping over themselves to sign LeBron and Wade and Bosh and Amar’e and Boozer and everyone else, do I really think that someone is going to offer a 32-year old Richard Hamilton a $38 Million contract? If I just wait until that summer to re-sign him, not only am I leaving space open to sign a blue-chipper, I’m also probably saving $15 Million on Hamilton’s contract. Or would that make too much sense? Or, if I decide to spend some of my available cash this offseason, I won’t have to worry about saving money to re-sign Hamilton, because next summer I’ll have his Larry Bird rights, so I can go over the cap if I want to re-sign him. How is it that I could figure this out in about 10 minutes using only my brain and hoopshype.com’s salary page, and the 2003 NBA Executive of The Year couldn’t? My head hurts
July 2009: Signed Ben Gordon to a 5-year, $55 Million contract; Signed Charlie Villanueva to a 5-year, $40 Million contract
So, for those of you scoring at home, Detroit is now committed to Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton, and Charlie Villanueva to a combined $144 Million over the next five years. By the way, does anyone want to know the combined number of All-Star appearances from those three players? Three. All by Richard Hamilton. Like, I really, really wish I was joking right now. But hey, any time you can lock up three players who wouldn’t be able to crack the top-3 of any of this year’s Conference Finals teams for $144 Million, you HAVE to do it. Every time.
Here’s the most important question though. Who is the breadwinner on this Detroit team? Who are they handing the ball to and saying “get us a good possession.” Their entire team is role players. They don’t even have a real 2nd-banana. Dumars is going about this whole process ass-backwards. The point is to get your Franchise Guy, and then surround him with role players. Not sign a bunch of role players, and then hope that a Franchise Guy falls into your lap. It just doesn’t work that way.
The only logical explanation is that Dumars is trying to re-create the team he had from 2004-2007, with the only problem being that the 2004 team can’t be recreated. It simply can’t be done. They were a gritty, deep team that didn’t have a prototypical franchise player, but they won because of how well everyone’s style matched. Now they just took wild stabs in the dark at guys like Gordon and Villanueva, wildly overpaying Gordon in the process, and hoping that they can catch lightning in a bottle for the 2nd time. Good luck.
In 2004, they were able to roll the dice with Rasheed Wallace because Chauncey was there to keep everything under wraps. Now, they’ve traded Chauncey, and brought in Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, both of whom are known to be semi-head cases, or at the very least, knuckleheads. So who is the Alpha Dog that’s going to keep everything under control? When Gordon and Villanueva start gunning for their own stats in mid-December, who is the one that’s going to step up and scare the living hell out of them? Alpha Dogs are born, not made. How many Vince Carter-like players are we going to have to go through before we realize that we can’t just thrust the role of “Franchise Player and Alpha Dog” onto players. Everything about this 2009-2010 Detroit team looks rudderless and a train wreck waiting to happen. And if and when the team finally self-destructs, I hope everyone points the finger at Joe Dumars, and exposes him for the bad GM that he is.
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