Wheeling And Dealing With The NBA Summer

Thursday, July 2, 2009
Posted by Jeremy Conlin

Is it just me, or have NBA teams been wheeling and dealing like a bunch of 8th-graders trying to find the missing piece for their team before an MLB Showdown tournament? And I don’t care if only three people alive get that reference, all I know is that my buddies Scott and Ryan are doing Tiger Fist Pumps right now.

In the week leading up to the draft, we saw four blockbuster trades that could each potentially put one of the participating teams into their respective conference finals. It almost makes up for the unworldly crapfest that was this year’s trade deadline. Actually, on second thought, the marquee deal of the regular season was a three-team shuffle that involves Tim Thomas, Larry Hughes, and Jerome James. I mean, I don’t even have a joke here.

So I guess the question that everyone is asking is, “Who are the winners, and who are the losers?” Well, I don’t feel like answering that question. I feel like breaking down each individual trade and making bad jokes. Sue me.

1. Washington trades The No. 5 pick, Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas, and Darius Songaila to Minnesota for Randy Foye and Mike Miller

I mean, really, how good does Washington look on paper right now? Randy Foye, Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Brendan Haywood starting, with Mike Miller, DeShawn Stevenson, Andray Blatche, Nick Young, and JaVale McGee coming off the bench. They’re super athletic, and super deep. But when you look closer, here are three things that jump out at me:

(A) Not one of their starters play good defense. Not a one. Caron Butler isn’t completely lost out there, and Foye is one of the few point guards in the league that doesn’t make me wonder if I could score on them, but winning in the playoffs boils down to defense, rebounding and protecting the rim. Looking at this roster, I’m not seeing too many guys that fit that mold. Jamison only rebounds in contract years, Brendan Haywood missed 75 games last year and gets called Brenda by a lot of Wizards fans, and both of those guys defend the rim worse than I defend my borders when I play Risk.

(B) Mike Miller died 11 months ago. He can do exactly one productive thing on a basketball court: shoot wide-open threes. The only problem is, Mike Miller hasn’t realized this yet. He still thinks that he’s 2003 Mike Miller that can put the ball on the floor and create shots for himself and others. He’ll probably play off the bench, so Washington will only have a clunky offense for about 22 minutes of the game instead of 38, but the point remains.

(C) Not only has Gilbert Arenas missed a combined 149 games over the last two seasons and now has to get himself back into shape, he has to get himself back into shape while playing alongside two brand new players. Furthermore, Washington now has two “ball-dominant” players, Arenas and Foye. Both of those players need the ball in their hands to be successful. If I’m a Wizards fan, am I confident that the first 20 games of the season will go swimmingly when my team has two players that need the ball pretty much at all times, compounded with the fact that one of them (Foye) is a restricted free agent at the end of the season? I vote no.


As for the Timberwolves, if I ever attend one of GM David Khan’s press conferences, here would be my question:

“So, you’re payroll for the 2009-2010 season (not including rookies) currently stands at $50.9 Million, and $23 Million of that is being paid to Etan Thomas, Brian Cardinal, Darius Songaila, Mark Madsen, and Oleksiy Pecherov. Also, you drafted the 2nd-best player in this year’s class, but managed to screw it up by drafting a 2nd point guard in the very next spot even though it’s been painfully clear to everyone since God was a boy that Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn have completely conflicting styles of play and won’t be able to both be on the floor at the same time. And another thing, you drafted the 2nd-best player in this year’s class, but managed to screw it up so bad that he will now either demand to be traded, or will choose to not sign with you and return to Europe. I don’t even have a question here. I just wanted to make sure you knew all of this.”

2. Orlando trades Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, and Tony Battie to New Jersey for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson

All I can say is, thank all that is good and holy for Otis Smith. Just when we were wondering whether or not Smith was secretly a genius for over-paying for Rashard Lewis now that it turns out that Lewis is exactly the type of forward that causes matchup problems for every team in the league, Smith turns around and removes his team’s name from the list of Legit 2010 Title Contenders. Now, I sense some of you slipping away from me here. Let me explain.

For the last two years, Orlando employed an offense built around the pick-and-roll, led by one main creator: Hedo Turkoglu. If you look around at other offenses in the league, these are usually very successful. For example, you have Steve Nash and Phoenix, or Deron Williams and Utah, or Chris Paul in New Orleans. Boston runs a lot of high screens, with either Paul Pierce or Rajon Rondo handling the ball. If you go back through history, many other great teams played a lot of pick-and-roll. The Showtime Lakers featured a high screen offense with Magic and Worthy. Stockton and Malone may have been the best pick-and-roll combo ever, and they made the finals in back-to-back years.

Now, what the Vince Carter trade does, is it essentially prevents Orlando from being able to re-sign Turkoglu. Turkoglu is looking to sign a big contract, and is probably going to get one. As it stands, Orlando already has $68 Million committed next season, and is committed to $50 Million already for the 2012-2013 season between Howard, Lewis, Nelson, and Ryan Anderson. So, reading between the lines here, Otis Smith basically announced “we will not re-sign Hedo Turkoglu, we got Vince Carter instead.” So what does this mean for Orlando’s offense? It means the days of the pick-and-roll might be over. Vince Carter’s decision-making as a passer, is, at best, below average. He has never been comfortable being The Guy, and has always been better suited as the 2nd fiddle (like to Jason Kidd for a while in Jersey, then Devin Harris). He’s much better when the team already has a creator in place. Well, Orlando’s creator was Turkoglu. Now he’s gone. So what does that do for Orlando’s offense? It puts in slap in the middle of no-man’s land between an offense centered around a dominant big man (Dwight Howard) and an offense centered around one good slasher (Vince Carter). Now, an offense built around a big man can work. We’ve seen it hundreds of times throughout NBA history. And we’ve also seen that an offense built around one good slasher can work, when that slasher is named either Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant. Well, I hope you’re all sitting down, because I’m about to shock a lot of people. Vince Carter isn’t as good as Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant. And Dwight Howard isn’t good enough to have an entire offense centered around him. So that leaves the question, who is creating shots in this Orlando offense? Carter can’t do it. Howard can’t do it. I don’t think Jameer Nelson can do it.

Want another reason why the trade was dumb? One of Orlando’s biggest advantages in the Eastern Conference was that they matched up with Cleveland so well. For most of the Eastern Conference Finals, Hedo Turkoglu (who stands at 6-10) was being guarded by Delonte West (6-4). Now, we replace Turkoglu with Vince Carter, but then also factor in that Carter plays a different position. I would guess that Mickael Pietrus will move into the starting lineup to replace Turkoglu, and now Cleveland can throw LeBron on Pietrus, a somewhat offensively challenged player, and have him cheat off Pietrus to play help defense. Then they can have Mo Williams on Jameer Nelson, and Delonte West on Carter, and all of a sudden, there isn’t a huge height/length disparity. There isn’t a glaring matchup problem in the backcourt like there was last year. Then during crunch time, Cleveland can switch LeBron over onto Carter, Orlando’s best offensive player, and he won’t be tired out because his defensive responsibilities for the first 40 minutes of the game will have been to check Mickael Pietrus and help when he needs to. The only real advantage that Orlando still has offensively is the quickness in their frontcourt. But my counter would be, how are they going to take advantage of that quickness if they don’t have Turkoglu running the pick-and-roll?

…

New Jersey’s side of the trade was a straight salary dump. Rafer Alston and Tony Battie both have contracts that expire after this season, and Courtney Lee is locked in at a cheap price for awhile ($1.2 Million this year, $1.3M next year, $2.2M in 2012, $3.3M in 2013). They’re currently only on the books for $26 Million next season, so their cap space plus a potential move to Brooklyn may be able to suck in a few good free agents next summer. And, for the record, if they build up all of this cap space and don’t manage to sign LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Amar’e, Boozer, Joe Johnson, Manu Ginobili, or Michael Redd, or, at the very least, release national advertisements begging one (or more) of the aforementioned players to sign, the franchise should be disbanded. It’s that simple.

3. Cleveland trades Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, a 2009 2nd-round pick, and cash considerations to Phoenix for Shaquille O’Neal

I have some mixed feelings about this trade.

On one hand, the biggest reason Cleveland got bounced from the playoffs was because Zydrunas Ilgauskas did a horrific job defending the pick-and-roll. He just isn’t mobile enough. In that respect, Shaq isn’t an upgrade. Shaq couldn’t defend the pick-and-roll if Patty Mayonnaise’s dad was running it. The only purpose he serves defensively at this point is taking up space in the paint and scaring the everliving crap out of point guards that try to attack the basket. And don’t get me wrong, that’s a valuable thing to have on your team, but if your title hopes rest on Shaq being able to defend the pick-and-roll, then you aren’t going to win the title.

If the 2009 Cavs were a patient at a hospital, they needed aggressive, invasive surgery. During the season, they should have traded Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract for another piece. Then during the offseason, they should have packaged Ben Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Sasha Pavlovic, and a combination of either draft picks or young players (like J.J. Hickson or Daniel Gibson), and try to take advantage of teams that were trying to shed salary, like Phoenix, New Orleans, Milwaukee, New Jersey, or Sacramento. That’s what they should have done. Instead, they decided to stand pat, wait for the offseason, and then trade for Shaq. To continue with the patient analogy, they went into the Operating Room for a kidney transplant, the doctor came in, and instead of giving them a new kidney, he gave them a flu shot. Sure, everyone can use a flu shot, just like every team can use a good center, but it wasn’t what they needed. They needed a big man that was mobile, or a good shooter with size. During the first e-mail debate, I tossed out the possibility of James Posey or Troy Murphy (both perfect fits for Cleveland), but I didn’t hear a single rumor about either of those players being shopped around. I’m assuming that Cleveland has another move to make, because the likelihood of Shaq and Z ever being on the floor together is about as likely as Michael Olawakandi making a comeback and winning 4 MVPs. I just hope for their sake it’s a move that makes sense.

However, when you look closer, the Shaq trade really wasn’t all bad for Cleveland. Like I wrote earlier, they key element of Orlando’s pick-and-roll offense is going to skip town. I’m not sure how Orlando’s offense is going to operate anymore. If they aren’t running the pick-and-roll on every possession, then they can’t take advantage of Shaq’s biggest weakness defensively. And, as I was discussing with my buddy Ryan the other day, Dwight Howard has always played poorly against Shaq. Howard is used to being to strongest player on the floor at all times, so when he plays against Shaq, who is definitely bigger and stronger than he is, Howard gets flustered. His rebounding numbers go down, he gets in foul trouble easier, and he has a hard time defending Shaq on the block. On offense, he can’t simply bowl over his defender like he usually does, because Shaq is essentially a brick wall. All told, the Shaq trade does allow them to match up better with Dwight Howard.

But then, when you turn it around again, the player they should have tried to match up better with was Rashard Lewis. Anderson Varejao isn’t going to cut it. They need a player like James Posey, or Trevor Ariza, or Travis Outlaw, or Ron Artest, or Shawn Marion. A player that can play both forward positions, allow them to go big or small. They need to make a move to improve the athleticism of their front line. They haven’t done it yet, and until they do, this next trade will remain more relevant to the 2010 season.

4. San Antonio trades Amir Johnson (via Detroit), Bruce Bowen, and Kurt Thomas to Milwaukee for Richard Jefferson.

Okay, Milwaukee fans. Here’s what’s up. Let’s take a moment and think back to the 2007 draft. Your team had the #6 pick in a fairly strong draft. They decided to take Yi Jianlian, a Chinese Forward who earned himself the nickname “The Chairman” because of the pre-draft workout where he was defended only by folding chairs. Now, the problem with that pick is that there had already been several rumors that he was older than his listed age of 20 (and since the draft those rumors have gotten stronger, and it is now widely believed that he is at least two years older than what he is listed as), and furthermore, he had made it public from the beginning that he only wanted to play in a city that had a large Asian population. Now, I’m no geographer, but I’m fairly certain the demographic breakdown of Milwaukee doesn’t include a substantial Asian population. To the best of my knowledge, it’s mostly overweight white people. Yet, unabashed, Milwaukee selects Yi over a bevy of other players, such as Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Al Thornton, Rudy Fernandez, Carl Landry, and Brandan Wright, many of whom have gone on to greater success than Yi has through two years in the league.

Now, in his first season in Milwaukee, Yi showed promise. He had a few games that had a few flashes. I felt that possibly, if all 52 cards plus both jokers fell the right way, Yi might be able to make an All-Star game someday. However, his play was inconsistent; he missed 16 games with injury, and only started 49 of the 82 games. Now, instead of waiting things out to see if he would continue to improve, Milwaukee used him as a selling point to shed Bobby Simmons’ contract, and in return, they received Richard Jefferson.

Jefferson came attached to an ugly contract. He was dropped into various trade rumors before the Trade deadline, but in the end, Milwaukee chose to keep him until the offseason. Well, the problem is, between February and June, it became clear to the Bucks front office that they were losing money faster than a stoner at Taco Bell at 3 AM. They had to turn around and trade Jefferson for Bruce Bowen (washed up), Kurt Thomas (92% washed up), and Amir Johnson (couldn’t even start over Kwame Brown). Now, are you ready, Milwaukee fans? Because I’m about to tie everything together for you.

Your team traded the #6 pick in the 2007 draft for a washed up Bruce Bowen, a washed up Kurt Thomas, and Amir Johnson. That’s the trade. I have no idea why nobody is making a bigger deal out of this. At this point, the Bucks should ditch their current uniform and logo and just put a giant middle finger on the floor at center court.

…

And the Spurs, you say? The Spurs are now my heavy favorite for the 2010 NBA title. Jefferson makes them an absolutely deadly offensive team. Last year his spot was being filled by Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, and Ime Udoka. Two of those guys are washed up and the other isn’t an offensive threat. I’m not sure “upgrade” is a strong enough word to describe this trade on San Antonio’s end. There isn’t anything that Jefferson can’t do offensively. My buddy Phil approximated that Jefferson would shoot 692 corner threes this season. He’s a tall, explosive wing player, a type of player that Tim Duncan has really never played with. He’s a great shooter, he can attack the rim (another element that San Antonio has never really had), and he’s phenomenal in transition.

The only things that could make me pause are (A) the fact that Jefferson hasn’t played defense since 2003, and (B) San Antonio gave up pretty much all of their frontcourt depth.

But, as my buddy Phil also said “If you don’t play D, you don’t play for Pop,” and I have to agree. Popovich wouldn’t have traded for Jefferson if he wasn’t 1000% completely sure that Jefferson would be able to fit into his system, both offensively and defensively. Coming out of college, Jefferson was considered one of the premier perimeter defenders in the country. He continued that for his first few years in New Jersey, and even made back-to-back appearances in the Finals in 2002 and 2003. Of course, all of that changed when Vince Carter showed up, but that’s another story. If there’s any defensive intensity left in Jefferson’s body, Popovich will find it.

As for their depth in the frontcourt, the Spurs did what they usually do. They robbed every other team in the league blind during the draft. They needed a rebounder, and they somehow managed to nab the best pure rebounder in the draft, DeJuan Blair, with the 37th pick in the draft. Does it scare me that he doesn’t have ACLs? A little bit, but you also have to factor in that he can no longer tear them. That has to be good, right? Blair, when combined with their current front line, gives San Antonio a ton of flexibility. As long as either Blair or Duncan are on the floor, they aren’t going to get killed on the glass. Then they can mix and match the rest of their lineup, like go small with Parker, Mason, Ginobili, Jefferson, and Duncan (how does a team like Houston defend that?), or go big by replacing Mason or Ginobili with Blair. Matt Bonner gives them a big man that can stretch the floor, which frees up space for Duncan to operate, or for Jefferson to attack the basket. For a team that was already one of the most efficient offenses in the league, adding Jefferson and Blair takes them to a level that they may have never been before.

San Antonio is only +1200 to win the 2010 NBA title. Anybody want in?

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